|
 Published
August 17th, 2010
Faced with the realities on the ground, the PDP couldn’t have done otherwise. For, how
could a ruling party look its president who has yet to do
one year in office in the eye and say to him: Sir, you have
been banned by our party from running for the 2011
presidential election! How could the same political class
that granted Shehu Shagari, Olusegun Obasanjo and, but for
death, late Musa Yar’Adua, the chance to go for two straight
terms in office without challenge suddenly turn around and
deny Jonathan, barely one year old in office, even a single
term in office for any reason other than gross misconduct as
stipulated in the nation’s constitution? How could the party
have been that daft and suicidal as to shoot itself in the
foot ahead of the impending presidential elections? It was
totally unimaginable and unthinkable!--Franklin
Otorofani, Esq.
However, PDP’s deliberate ambiguity is louder in silence in
what it doesn’t say than what it says. It’s quite remarkable
that while the party has on face value retained zoning in
its books, it did not specifically zone the presidency to
the North in 2011 as demanded by the “North” and that must
be a terrible blow to the Northern elements in the party
rooting for zoning, including Atiku and IBB. It’s a
veritable game changer!—Franklin
Otorofani, Esq.
Three weeks ago to this day August 15, 2010, precisely on July 26, 2010,
this writer had the privilege of putting out an article
titled,
Lazy Man’s Road To Power: Ten
Reasons To Dump Zoning
marshalling out ten unassailable reasons and
justifications why the PDP zoning formula should belong, not
in the party’s constitution but in the dumpster where it’s
headed inexorably as its final destination, no matter the
foot-dragging and political horse trading currently going on
at the highest echelons of the party’s leadership.
Regardless of the stiff resistance currently being put up by vested
interests in the North to retain zoning in the party’s
constitution, that’s the ultimate fate that will surely
befall the formula that’s designed not to promote and
broaden democratic choices available to Nigerians, but to
reduce and further constrict those choices and
disenfranchise Nigerians from particular sections of the
country from gunning for the highest office in the land.
And thanks to the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria which
provisions are ever superior and will forever remain
superior and, therefore, will always prevail against any
party agreement or party constitutional provisions, as the
case may be.
At this stage of our democratic experience one would have thought that
the political class would be pre-occupied with the
broadening and expansion of the democratic space. Sadly
enough, what we’re experiencing with zoning is the reverse.
We should be moving forward not backward and zoning is
backward not forward ambulation however hard we try to
explain it away for, even slavery and apartheid had their
explanations and justifications.
Oh yes, they had their strident apostles too who sought to drown out
every voice of opposition to their evil systems sometimes
with death threats! But their explanations and
justifications and death threats did not make them any more
acceptable to right thinking people all over the world and
were forced to close shop in due course. Similar fate awaits
zoning.
However, it is hard to see how the PDP could maintain zoning in the face
of the provisions of the nation’s constitution. It’s simply
almost impossible unless by willful acquiescence on the part
of affected presidential aspirants. And the fact that it has
been forced to amend its constitution to give effect to the
provisions of the new Electoral Act is the first signal yet
that the same fate will befall the party’s unconstitutional
zoning formula. If the PDP could amend its constitution to
bring it in line with the new Electoral Act as regards
automatic candidates to its primaries and conventions, it is
incredible, to say the least, that it could not amend its
constitution to bring it in line with the nation’s
constitution which is superior to all other laws in the land
including the Electoral Act itself which it has bowed to.
But it’s only a matter of time that it will be forced to do
it. It takes just a law suit!
However,
it has become clear from the decision of the party’s 52nd
NEC meeting that it has, for now, retained its zoning
formula in its constitution while at the same time throwing
the 2011 presidential contest open to all party members. The
party has managed to hinge its decision to throw the contest
open to all, including Jonathan, on the basis of
Yar’Adua/Jonathan Joint Ticket. That ticket is subsisting
and will run out in 2015 provided of course the party
retains power. If it loses power to the opposition party,
the whole arrangement which is based on the PDP retaining
power, will crumble like a pack of cards and the PDP will be
forced once again to visit the zoning. Zoning is built on a
foundation of quicksand. It’s a makeshift arrangement that
cannot stand the test of time and it’s time to face up to
that reality instead of building its castles in the air. For
the 2011 presidential election though, zoning has been
tactfully put in abeyance for the benefit of the president
under the pretext of a Joint Ticket. And I have no problem
with that as long as it allows anyone including Jonathan to
run in 2011.
Hear the
crafty and diplomatic Dr. Okwesilieze Nwodo, the party
chairman, providing the theoretical and intellectual
foundations for the party’s decision in his presentation,
which was overwhelmingly adopted by the 52nd NEC:
“Today, Dr Goodluck
Jonathan by the dictate of our constitution is exercising
the term of a joint mandate, given by the people of our
great country. If our late president were alive today, we
wouldn’t be contesting his right to run for a second term
under our national constitution. It was his entitlement.
“But Dr Jonathan who is
part and parcel of that mandate has a right to contest the
remaining of that joint ticket in 2011. This will of course
not exclude any other aspirant from any part of the country
from contesting the presidential primary, as it has become
the custom of our party.”
To me that is a fatal blow to zoning right there. There is no doubt about
it. You cannot zone and un-zone at the same time. Both are
mutually exclusive. It’s either you zone or you don’t, and
by throwing the 2011 presidential primaries open to all
party members, it has effectively killed zoning without
saying so. What a dubious way to act! But then that is the
nature of politicians and politics. Politics is a game of
doublespeak that abhors straight, blunt positions for fear
of offending certain constituents even if it is doing just
that in reality and the PDP is only acting to type.
By retaining zoning, it appears on the face of it, to have adopted the
position of those who insist on zoning. But by throwing the
2011 contest open to all interested party members, it has
effectively nullified the effect of zoning, at least for the
2011 election and, thus indirectly satisfying the wishes of
those who wanted zoning dumped. Of course they wanted zoning
dumped to allow Jonathan to contest, not for its own sake,
and that’s exactly what the party delivered to them on a
platter. It will be recalled that this is the same position
taken earlier by the party’s BoT headed by former President
Olusegun Obasanjo. And this is where the pro-Jonathan group
succeeded in carrying the day to the chagrin of IBB and
Atiku who must be wringing their arms in pain. That’s not
what they wanted. They wanted Jonthan out of the way by
insisting on zoning. They were handed an empty zoning shell.
Faced with the realities on the ground, the PDP couldn’t have done
otherwise. For, how could a ruling party look its president
who has yet to do one year in office in the eye and say to
him: Sir, you have been banned by our party from running for
the 2011 presidential election!
How could the same political class that granted Shehu Shagari, Olusegun
Obasanjo and, but for death, late Musa Yar’Adua, the chance
to go for two straight terms in office without challenge
suddenly turn around and deny Jonathan, barely one year old
in office, even a single term in office for any reason other
than gross misconduct as stipulated in the nation’s
constitution? How could the party have been that daft and
suicidal as to shoot itself in the foot ahead of the
impending presidential elections? It was totally
unimaginable and unthinkable! It’s a veritable game
changer!
The PDP was therefore smart in toeing the path of wisdom by throwing the
presidency open to all, in effect, clearing the way for
Jonathan to run, without offending its pro zoning
constituents.
However, PDP’s deliberate ambiguity is louder in silence in what it does
not say than what it says. It’s quite remarkable that while
the party has on face value retained zoning in its books, it
did not specifically zone the presidency to the North in
2011 as demanded by the “North” and that must be a terrible
blow to the Northern elements in the party rooting for
zoning, including Atiku and IBB. That said, PDP was only
respecting precedents, because it had done the same exact
thing in the past by allowing other presidential aspirants
from non-favored zones to contest its primary. Nwodo himself
alluded to that tradition in the above quote.
There’s no question that this is a huge victory for Jonathan that had
stood the risk of being zoned out of the race by the party.
On the other hand, it is a great loss and indeed an
embarrassment to those like Abubakar Atiku and Ibrahim
Babaginda, both PDP presidential aspirants who had
vehemently opposed Jonathan’s candidacy under the platform
of the PDP. Their whole effort was geared not only for the
party to retain zoning but to use it to deny Jonathan a
chance to run in 2011. That did not happen. On the contrary,
the party has given Jonathan the green light to contest if
he wants to. Of course he wants to, and the party knew that
before formally throwing the contest open to all party
members. It did that specifically to accommodate Jonathan
whose interest to contest is an open secret. Atiku and IBB
who wanted Jonathan out of the way so bad must now make up
their minds whether or not to stand against Jonathan under
the PDP platform.
What better way to tell them to take their leave and vamoose from the
scene! This view is buttressed by the unpleasant news that
has hit the Atiku camp one day to the launch of its
presidential campaign. Latest information from the PDP
headquarters that it had not granted Atiku any waivers to
contest the presidential election under its platform due to
the fact that he is not yet a PDP member and the denial of
Atiku’s PDP membership by the Adamawa state PDP are all
indications that he’s not wanted in the party. He is only
forcing himself on an unwilling host. His PDP membership is
already in question because he chose to register with a
faction of the party in his state that is not recognized by
the national secretariat of the party.
“I have been in Abuja since Sunday and I can tell you that to the best of
my knowledge, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar has not been admitted
back into the party in Adamawa State,” the Adamawa state PDP
chairman,
Alhaji Mijinyawa Kugama, was quoted by ThisDay Online
081510, in a telephone interview.
For the crisis prone Atiku, it’s 2007 all over again! He’s already a
political accident and casualty waiting to happen. This
could be the beginning of the events that will lead to the
second expulsion of Atiku from the PDP as predicted two
weeks ago in my last blog of August 3rd 2010
titled:
Permutations and Projections into Nigeria’s 2011 General
Elections.
Looking Ahead
Right now, zoning appears to be settled matter for the PDP at least for
the 2011 elections. However, by retaining it for future
elections, it is sure to rear its ugly head again until the
PDP finally summons up courage to dump it altogether rather
than going around it in circles as it appears to be doing
presently. PDP has merely kicked the can down the road for
someone else to deal with in future. That said, whether the
PDP retains the zoning provision in its constitution or not
in future elections is immaterial. It can keep the formula
as a souvenir if it likes. But I can assure the party that
it will be no more than a decorative item on its
constitution having no bite and no force of law. And worse
still, it will come back to hurt the party in future
elections.
However, for the nation and individual aspirants, what matters is not
whether PDP keeps its zoning but whether it will be
respected by its members who are nursing presidential
ambitions in future and have the backing of the nation’s
constitution to proceed without let or hindrance. The party
may have managed to dodge the bullet by being crafty and
duplicitous. But the party must watch its back because it
may be faced with worse situation in future with the zoning
left in its books.
It must be made clear to the PDP, however, that’s practicing what I would
characterize as “managed democracy” that zoning cannot
prevent a determined presidential aspirant like the late
former Kano state Governor, late Abubakar Rimi, from going
ahead to contest the PDP primaries and thus the presidency
if he or she has the means and the goodwill to carry it all
the way through. All a determined presidential aspirant
denied a chance to go for the PDP primaries on ground of
zoning needs do is head to court to nullify the zoning
provisions of the PDP’s constitution and reverse the action
of the party in denying that individual a chance to
participate in its presidential primaries. I’m confident
that zoning cannot survive a court challenge and the PDP has
had series of unpleasant experiences with court challenges
that ought to have informed its decision to jettison the
provisions.
Zoning is enforceable if and only if a victimized presidential aspirant
on the platform of the party decides to let go his
presidential ambition and abide by party rule no matter if
his constitutional right is breached or not. There are
aspirants who could be intimidated by the party to give up
their rights to contest. But no truly serious aspirant would
do that and would head to court to put the PDP in its place
just like Rotimi Amechi did in River State.
If the party were a good student of its own history, it should have
learnt from that and other experiences in the recent past.
When will the PDP learn its lessons and learn to be guided
by law rather than by men in its official dealings? Rule of
law is different from the wishes of men. The party’s own
legal adviser had told it point blank that zoning is
unconstitutional and could not be used to stop any member
from vying for the presidency, yet it is dilly dallying
about scrapping the obnoxious formula altogether and align
its constitution with the nation’s constitution. That’s
nothing but fool-hardiness. PPD has suffered several
setbacks in the past due to its unconstitutional conduct as
evidenced in what happened in both Rivers State and Imo
state gubernatorial elections in 2007, where the party’s
decisions were upturned by the courts.
The party’s arbitrariness without regard for the nation’s constitution
cost it Imo state and almost cost it Rivers state if
Governor Rotimi Amaechi were from a different party. All the
same it cost it the former governor of the state, Celestine
Omehia who lost out at the Supreme Court not because he was
at fault but because the party decided to be law unto itself
as it is doing with zoning presently. The zoning is a
veritable judicial suicide awaiting the PDP if it is used to
deny any determined aspirant participation in the party’s
primaries. It’s the party’s ultimate waterloo if not quickly
thrown overboard now, because the Nigerian judiciary is not
beholden to the PDP and its shenanigans.
Fears Driving Zoning
Now, some have argued rather naively that zoning is meant to rotate power
between North and the South. Where is that in the
constitution? The PDP constitution does not talk about
rotating power between North and South but zoning
simpliciter and we know about six zones in the country not
two zones between North and South. So if we’re to “rotate”
power it is going to be rotated among the six zones.
Rotation cannot be between North and South; that would be
“alternation” between North and South not “rotation”.
So let’s get our terms clear. There is no provision for
alternating power in the PDP constitution to begin with. So
where does rotation between North and South come from?
They further argue that the “North” would never, ever allow power back to
the South again after 2015 if the PDP dumps zoning and
Jonathan goes ahead to contest the 2011 election and wins.
I would want to address these fears in some details and would state right
away that such people have been left behind by history.
First and foremost, such fears are deeply rooted in the
belief and conviction that it is the North that dispenses
power to whomever and wherever it wants it to go, and could
withhold or deny power to whomsoever or wherever it doesn’t
want it to go. This belief and conviction is in turn hinged
on the assumed numerical superiority of the North that could
enable it to determine the outcomes of political contests at
the presidential level and hence national leadership.
I would like to state right away that the very idea of investing the
North or for that matter, any other geo-political region in
the nation with such power is in and of itself a product of
slave mentality. For starters, Nigeria has no reliable
population count and all previous population counts just
like previous elections in the country are generally flawed
and deliberately skewed in favor of certain regions. As we
all know, population count in Nigeria is used to determine
the number of federal constituencies, revenue allocation,
and even state creation, et al and so the incentives to
inflate figures are high. Therefore, the idea of numerical
superiority is at best mere conjecture and a figment of
imagination. No one knows the real population of Nigeria and
its geographical distribution. Until that is done, the idea
of numerical superiority or inferiority of any region is a
non starter.
Secondly, even if at the end of the day, the North is determined to be
numerically superior to the South, such numerical
superiority does not in any way automatically translate to
electoral victory for a northern candidate because there are
other dynamics at play in politics of which the relative
sizes of regional electorates is only one of several
factors. A good example was Chief MKO Abiola, a southerner
from the South/West who defeated a northerner from the
North/West, Alhaji Ibrahim Tofa, in his own backyard in Kano
state under the platform of the Social Democratic Party
(SDP). Abiola did not defeat Tofa who ran under the platform
of the National Republican Convention (NRC) because the
presidency was zoned to the South, (there was no zoning in
the SDP), but because he was generally acceptable to all
Nigerians across the board in both northern and southern
parts of the country. There is no question that Nigeria
needs somebody like Abiola who enjoys general acceptability
across the board without regard to ethnicity rather than an
ethnic imposition through party zoning.
Thirdly, the notion that numerical superiority of a particular region
alone determines who wins or loses an election glosses over
the undeniable fact that no one region determines the
outcomes of a presidential election. The North alone cannot
win the presidency all by itself without the support of the
other regions. The same is equally true of the South. This
reality dictates certain compromises and hard political
bargaining. Therefore, to hold as some naïve southern and
northern commentators have done that the North would not
allow power back to the South after 2015 should Jonathan
contest and win the 2011 presidential election smacks of
gross ignorance of the dynamics of politics and imperatives
of democratic elections. The reality is that no one region
or zone can win a presidential election in Nigeria without
the support of other regions or zones in the nation, period.
For any region or zone to win a presidential election,
therefore, it must actively cultivate the support of other
regions or zones in negotiated deals, which invariably
involve give and take that’s the hallmark of democracy. If
the North will not allow other regions in the South to
produce the president in future after Jonathan might have
left the scene, it equally means it cannot be allowed to
produce the president in future as well by the other
regions. It’s that simple. If you don’t give in politics you
won’t be allowed to take either. Politics is a game of give
and take and if one will not give it will not be allowed to
take either. That’s the bottom line. So the fear that the
North will allow power to come to the South in future is
totally and completely misplaced, a product of ignorance and
has no basis whatsoever in the present realities.
Fourthly, the “North” is not a monolithic block as some would have us
believe. Only a complete political neophyte would believe
the bogey of “One North”. Politically, the North is almost
as fragmented and disunited as the South, even right from
the beginning of the nation’s independence in 1960. The
North has never had one single political party to rally
around but different political parties just like the South
since Independence.
Thus in the First Republic were the NPC and Aminu Kano’s NEPU, in
addition to Joseph Tarka’s Middle Belt Congress party, while
the South had principally the AG and the NCNC in addition to
other smaller parties, all of which had their own followers
in the regions, and across the country as well. Therefore,
there is no way the entire North is going to vote en-mass
for a single Northern candidate fielded by one party to the
exclusion of other candidates fielded by other parties in
the North. The history of elections bears this out
eloquently without a doubt, even in the last elections that
brought in Yar’Adua. Some parts of the North voted for
Buhari’s ANPP and Atiku’s AC even though PDP had fielded
Yar’Adua. That’s the reality. The North will split its votes
amongst different parties and different candidates, thereby
effectively nullifying the any perceived advantage of
numerical superiority to determine the outcomes presidential
elections on its terms. Fragmented regional votes can never
produce numerical superiority to determine electoral
outcomes.
Reasons for Jonathan’s Candidacy
(1)
To Forcefully Assert the Right of Minorities to the
Presidency
Those especially southerners who nurse fears or misgivings about
Jonathan’s run for the 2011 presidential election closely
mirror the attitudes of some African Americans in the United
States who initially viewed Obama’s candidacy for US
presidency with utter skepticism and in some cases hostility
for fear that it was a distraction that could hurt the
chances of the Democratic Party that already had Senator
Hillary Clinton as its crowned princess.
Like their Nigerian counterparts, those African Americans based their
misgivings on the notion that whites would never vote for
Obama and would use their “numerical superiority” to snuff
out life out of Obama’s presidential ambition. Right up to
the time of the Iowa caucus where Obama trounced Hillary,
many blacks doggedly maintained their lukewarm attitudes
toward the Obama candidacy and stuck with Hillary Clinton.
They only abandoned their fears and went full blast for
Obama after he made mincemeat of the Hillary Clinton in Iowa
and almost knocked her out in New Hampshire but for his
condescending remarks to Hillary during the debates coupled
with her feministic emotional outpourings that rallied women
to her at the eleventh hour. Remember the “You are likeable
enough” remarks by Obama to Hillary during the debate on the
eve of the primary and Hillary’s “I have found my voice”
remarks that resonated with women in New Hampshire?
African Americans made the decisive turn around in North Carolina to put
their stamp on the Obama candidacy and that effectively put
paid to the Clinton run. It’s time for Southerners to shake
themselves off that self-defeatist notion of the North not
allowing power to come to the south after 2015. That is an
attitude of subservience which Obama has helped to kill
amongst blacks in the United States and it is time for
Jonathan to do the same in Nigeria because there are so many
southerners out there who do not believe in themselves
politically and would want the North to continue to give
them political crumbs all the time rather than going for
political power at the highest level using whatever it
takes. The long military rule dominated by Northerners has
helped to foster this attitude of subservice and
self-defeatism which the late Chief MKO Abiola had helped to
kill but which many southerners still cling to,
unfortunately. It’s time to think straight and turn the
corner in the firm belief rooted in democratic ethos that
the South or the North could field a candidate just like
Chief MKO Abiola that is nationalistic and acceptable to the
generality of the Nigerians across the board without regards
to ethnicity or geographical background and win hands down.
It’s for this reason that President Goodluck Jonathan must declare his
candidacy, just like Obama and MKO Abiola before him, in
order to send a message that anyone from any part of the
country or ethnic group no matter how big or small has the
inalienable right to put himself forward for the nation’s
number one seat, without let or hindrance. He needs to send
the message that no Nigerian would be denied a chance to vie
for the nation’s presidency by circumstances of his birth,
in accordance with the provisions of the constitution. There
is none out there better to do this than the president
himself. His participation in the 2011 presidential election
in defiance of his party zoning sends a clear message that a
party formula is inferior to the nation’s constitution and
must therefore be made to give way to a superior force.
Jonathan must be a force for and agent of change for the
common good.
When he does that he liberates his generation and generations unborn from
the artificial strictures put in place to deny them their
constitutional right through the back door. By doing so, he
helps to rekindle the hopes of Nigerians in their own
country and hope matters, even if only a few will make it to
the presidency. That the right is there and well preserved
for them and their children, is as important as actually
utilizing the right itself. As president who has sworn to
uphold the provisions of the constitution Jonathan has the
burden duty of upholding this right, and there is no better
way to do so than by showing a personal example in
contesting. He cannot be seen as an accomplice in his
party’s quest to disenfranchise Nigerians. Bowing to party
dictates to maintain zoning and exclude him would be an
unpardonable betrayal on the part of the president.
Jonathan must therefore contest the election to put paid to zoning and he
does not have to wait for the party to amend its
constitution to allow him do so. His right to do so resides
not in his party’s constitution but in the nation’s
constitution which we all agree is superior to his party’s
constitution or any prior agreement to the contrary, not
generally ratified. The nation’s constitution will not be
modified illegally through the back door by secret
agreements hatched in the darkrooms of party headquarters.
(2)
To Demonstrate that He can Contest and Win in His Own
Right
There is a personal reason why he should contest. Jonathan is today the
president of Nigeria. But he has attained that height by
default and this has been the consistent feature of his
political trajectory right from his days as deputy governor
of Bayelsa state. He has never contested election as head of
a ticket but always as an appendage to someone else. At a
point he must show that he can contest and win election as a
head of a ticket and the forthcoming elections present his
last opportunity to prove this to the world.
There are some detractors out there who are mischievously contending that
Jonathan has “never won” an election and always in power
through the misfortunes of his bosses. While the first part
of that contention, to-wit, that he has “never won” an
election is untenable and obviously debatable, in that we do
not know whose votes put both Yar’Adua and Jonathan in power
given the fact the North split its votes among Yar’Adua,
Atiku and Buhari, while the entire South went for Yar’Adua
and Jonathan, it is true that he has consistently ascended
power through the misfortunes of his former bosses, whether
in Bayelsa as governor, or in Abuja as president.
He owes it to himself and posterity to turn that image around. While he
may have personally benefitted from the misfortunes of his
former bosses, it does not help his image that he could only
get to power through the misfortunes of his bosses. 2011
presents him with a chance to disprove that by being the
head of a presidential ticket with someone else deputizing
for him. This has nothing to do with the chance of the
South/South producing the president or zoning being
unconstitutional and undemocratic which are valid reasons in
themselves as indicated earlier and in my previous write ups
which are political and legal arguments, but a personal
reason for Jonathan to contest to straighten out his image
as one who only thrives on the misfortunes of his bosses.
He must stand up for himself as a man to do this and not
hide under the cover of zoning to chicken out.
(3)
To Actualize the Aspiration of South/South for the
Presidency
The Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekeremadu, in applauding the decision of
the party’s 52n NEC to throw the presidential election open
to all which he said had rendered “absolutely unnecessary”
the planned summit of the South/East to deliberate on zoning
and take a stand, was quoted by the Nigerian Sun Times
Online edition 081510, to have said the following on
this issue of the South/South having a go at the presidency
at this time:
“It is noteworthy that on access to the Presidency of this country, the
South-South has been the least favoured. This is the first
time that somebody from the South-South is reaching that
position after 50 years of nationhood.”
I couldn’t have said it better. The distinguished senator is right on the
money. Thus over and above the personal reason of Jonathan
vying for the office, is the more weighty political reason
why he should run without any hesitation at all on his part.
By virtue of the privileged position he has suddenly found
himself as president of Africa’s biggest nation and largest
democracy, Jonathan no longer represents himself as an
individual but the entire nation in general and the
South/South geopolitical zone in particular.
Whether he knows it or likes it or not, Jonathan is now the official
voice and representative of his people very much like
President Barack Obama is to the economically and socially
marginalized African Americans in the United States. It’s an
open secret that this particular zone had until now by
default, not tasted political power at the highest level of
the nation’s leadership since independence and would have
remained so if God Almighty had not directly intervened to
clear the way. Yet this is the very zone on which the rest
of the entire nation depends for economic survival. God is
great!
What God has put together let no man put asunder. It would be well to
take this advice to heart by those who dare God. This region
had been denied political power not because it had no
presidential materials which abound in the zone, but because
it had not sufficiently asserted itself in the past in
pursuing its political interests. Like the South/East after
the civil war, it had been content with playing the second
and even third fiddle to other regions particularly the
Northern zones. Each time it made a move in the past its
leaders easily buckled and sold out to the Northern zones
whose sons it is content to help install in power right from
independence and trek home on bare feet with empty hands
like an Agbero (motor park tout).
There’s no northern leader who was democratically elected since
independence without the support of the South/South. Tafawa
Balewa defeated Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe and Chief Obafemi Awolowo
in the First Republic because the South/South voted for him.
That made the difference as to who occupied the State House.
Either Zik or Awo could have been Prime Minister in the
First Republic but for the South/South votes. And Shehu
Shagari defeated Awolowo and Azikiwe in the Second Republic
because the South/South voted for him. That made the
difference as to who occupied the State House. Either Zik or
Awo could have been president in the Second Republic but for
the South/South votes. Let me not include the last election
in which all candidates came from the North and Jonathan was
paired with late Yar’Adua and so the South/South couldn’t
but vote for his ticket even if only because Jonathan was
there.
But I dare say that no northerner can be elected president in future
without the support of the South/South zone. I have made
this point sufficiently clear earlier in this piece that the
North cannot win any presidential election all by itself
without the support of other zones and the South/South has
been providing this critical support for the North all
along. If the North has become so ungrateful and will not
reciprocate this support for the South/South when it is
needed most and trying to use zoning as subterfuge to deny
the South/South its support, then of course, it will be time
for the South/South to review its political marriage with
the North and seek her political fortunes elsewhere. It is
therefore incumbent on President Goodluck Jonathan to take a
stand on this and act appropriately because he knows more
than I do how much the South/South had helped the North to
gain political power since independence without getting
anything in return.
I’m not an ethnic jingoist and by the way, the South/South is not an
ethnic enclave as the rest but a geographical region. But
this is the reality we’re dealing with. The region had been
acting like the Agbero who treks home empty handed after
putting others on a ride. I don’t need to be an ethnic
champion to demand an end to political marginalization of
any particular region in the nation more so the region that
produces the nation’s wealth. I’m taking my stand here. In
fact, I would actively campaign for the presidency to go
South/East in 2015 in order to put behind us the political
marginalization of the South/East before the presidency goes
back to the North, this time to the Middle Belt. If we want
to give every region a sense of belonging which we claim
zoning is meant to do, this is the way to go.
And let me serve notice here that the South/South will not let go
unpunished any act of willful betrayal either on the part of
the North and/or Jonathan himself. If certain zones in the
North insist on denying the South/South the presidency under
the cover of zoning, it doesn’t stop the zone from pressing
ahead by fielding a candidate of its choice and enter into
political arrangement with individual zones in the country
including the Middle Belt in the North and South/West and
South/East in the South.
However, at this moment in time, Jonathan is in the best position to help
actualize this agenda for the South/South. It’s a god-sent
opportunity that must be seized with both hands without
looking back at all. And anyone looking back stands the risk
of being turned to a mountain of salt as it was in the
Biblical times!
Be warned, folks, the South/South will rise or fall on Jonathan’s
shoulders at this historical juncture. And that is reason
number one why he cannot afford not to run. He has no choice
but run because he has now found himself fighting a cause
that is greater than himself. God has made it possible for
him to fight this cause on behalf of his people much like
God raised up Moses to liberate his people from slavery in
Egypt under the wicked Pharaohs.
This is clearly the case for those who have any iota of spiritual
enlightenment in their beings. And that would explain why
any weapon fashioned against the man thus far has failed.
Anyone who does not see the hand of God in Jonathan’s
ascendancy to the pinnacle of power must either be an
atheist or spiritually dumb and deaf, but we don’t all have
to be that way. Like I wrote during the Yar’Adua saga
several months ago when Jonathan was denied the substantive
office of president, there are many folks out there,
Christians and Moslems alike, who, blinded by personal
ambitions or group interests are willing to resist the hand
of God for as long as it takes only to get their fingers
burnt in the end. Such is the nature of Adamic man.
Unfortunately, the spiritually blind and dumb can never
realize this until it is too late, if at all. Jonathan is
God sent to liberate his people from economic and political
bondage. Therefore, the question as to whether he will run
does not arise at all in the first place. The question that
arises is when he will formally announce his decision not
if, and the time is drawing nigh. I’ll give him to the end
of this month to round off his national consultations and
drop the bomb. The political atomic bomb has to drop at the
end of this month and take out all presidential pretenders
running around at this time. It positively has to drop. He
has no choice but to drop the bomb and let it hit where it
might.
He cannot afford to play the Biblical Jonah who, called by God went and
hid himself to evade the call. Jonathan’s candidacy is God
ordained and no man can stop it not even himself even if he
wanted to. He would be fished out like Jonah even if he went
and hid himself somewhere to evade the call. This does not
mean that Jonathan would be the president of the
South/South, anymore than OBJ was the president of the
South/West or Yar’Adua was the president of the North/East.
It’s the symbolism of it that matters not the substance. The
mere fact that the South/South has produced the president to
serve the Nigerian nation sends a powerful massage that
would reverberate all over Africa and beyond just like the
Obama’s election in the United States did even if Jonathan
winds up sitting all development projects elsewhere in the
North, East or West with nothing for South/South. As stated
above, it’s the symbolism of it that matters. Nigeria will
become a positive reference point for the rest of the world.
I have not thrown my hat into this ring because Jonathan is from the
South/South or because he is the best material available in
Nigeria for the presidency, but because he is a Nigerian
citizen whose right was in danger of being denied by his own
party. Such injustice cannot be allowed to stand because it
creates a terrible precedent and precedents are powerful and
difficult to overcome. I would have done the same thing if
another Nigerian was involved. We must stand for justice and
fair play no matter the target. It’s Goodluck Jonathan
today. It was Abdulrahman Shugaba and Moshood Abiola
yesterday. And it could be Okechuckwu or Nnongo tomorrow.
There is no telling who will be the next victim if this is
allowed to stand. If I fought and even participated in
demonstrations in the past on behalf of these individuals,
there is no reason why I should shy away from demanding
justice and fair-play on behalf of Jonathan from the
South/South today. And that’s why all Nigerians of goodwill
should support the Jonathan candidacy, especially those
ethnic groups that have been denied a chance to produce a
leader for the country. It is South/South today, it could be
the South/East or North/Central tomorrow. But now is the
time to take a stand and be on the right side of history.
Suffice it to state that God has already written the history of Nigeria
at this moment. It’s left for us humans to fit ourselves in.
Those who see the handwriting on the wall will take steps to
align themselves on the good side of history. But the blind
and the naïve will fall by the way side and end up on the
wrong side of history. The choice is theirs and theirs alone
to make.
Run, Jonathan, Run! Run for the history books. Run for your name. Run for
Niger Delta! Run for the South/South! Run for the
South/East! Run for all marginalized minority ethnic groups
in Nigeria, Africa and the world! Run for Nigeria! Run for
Africa, for God has removed the road block erected by the
sons of men to prevent you from running. Make your country
proud just as Obama has done for the United States. Run for
posterity! God is great!
Franklin Otorofani, Esq. contact:
mudiagaone@yahoo.com
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