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 Published
August 3rd, 2010
I forecast Hurricane Jonathan making landfall in the South/South with wind gusts up to 130mph, making it a monstrous Category 5 hurricane. Naturally, its effects will be strongest in the South/South from where it will sweep through the South/East and South/West, and all the way through the Middle Belt with only slightly reduced strength. Its outer bands will be strongly felt in the North/East and tapering off in the North/West.—Franklin Otorofani
Open Field
With the successful amendments of the 1999 constitution that dialed back
the date for the presidential election to between December,
2010 and January, 2011 rather than the presumed date of
April, 2011 before the amendments took effect, the whistle
has been blown for the formal commencement of the titanic
race for the 2011 general elections.
I used the word “formal” deliberately because in reality the race had
already begun long before the amendments came in last week.
At this point in time, presidential aspirants (not yet
candidates until they’re nominated by their parties) have
started arriving on the field of play ready to slog it out
in their respective party primary nominations slated for
this month, thanks to the new Electoral Act just passed by
the National Assembly.
The 2010 amendments to the 2006 Electoral Act which mandate compulsory
party primaries to nominate party candidates is a most
welcome development in that it ensures a level playing field
for all aspirants by entrenching internal democracy in the
parties—a feature that has been sorely lacking in the
present Ghana-Must-Go set up.
It is, therefore, incumbent on the aspirants to be fully prepared for
real democratic contest not backroom deals with power
brokers in the dead of night. To be sure, it will not
totally eliminate the influence of power brokers who are
important party members themselves and deserve to have their
voices heard as well. But it will give the people a chance
to weigh in on the choice of candidates thus giving a voice
to the people. Isn’t that beautiful? The Electoral Act has
restored power to the people to determine who will fly their
party flags. It was a power hijacked by party lords to the
total exclusion of rank and file members of the parties to
whom it rightly belongs. Change has come to Nigeria!
There is, therefore, no question in my mind that it will help to entrench
grassroots democracy and compel politicians to deal directly
with the people at the grassroots rather than with a few
power brokers who have positioned themselves to ambush the
process by dictating and imposing their favored candidates
on the people behind their backs. It is a salutary
development that entrenches and further extends the taproots
of our young democracy. With a stroke of the pen the law has
achieved what the political parties could not achieve in 12
years. That is the power of law as an instrument of social
engineering.
With these amendments in place the promised and long expected electoral
reforms appear to have gotten up to speed. With these
amendments in place and zoning thrown out the window,
Nigeria is gradually but surely erecting the pillars of
democracy one peg at a time, and the future of her democracy
looks promising and brighter. That was the optimist in me
giving utterance to those lines. The pessimists might
disagree, but I’m not one of them. I’m an incurable optimist
to the core who holds steadfastly to the belief and
conviction that Nigeria will get it right. The established
democracies in the West that we often compare Nigeria to
were in worse shapes in their early beginnings. Their
systems were plagued with mind-boggling corruption, backroom
deals, vote manipulations and unspeakable electoral
brigandage and malpractices that would make ours pale into
insignificance.
And even today, those ills still manage to rear their ugly heads in the
advanced democracies making the perfection of democracy and
the electoral systems a tall order. An acceptable threshold
that approximates to perfection with minimal imperfections
is all that we could aim at because absolute perfection in
human affairs is an unattainable goal and a utopia. This is
not to pass a vote of confidence in our system or to excuse
whatever ails it, but an expression of faith in the ability
of the nation to overcome the present and build the future
through the gradual perfection of the system just like it
was done in other nations whose systems were bedeviled by
similar ailments in time past.
An unbroken 12-year run on democracy is no mean achievement in a nation
with a notorious history of coups and counter coups as its
political staple. We must not forget that in a hurry
regardless of whatever shortcomings that are weighing us
down. Such shortcomings can only be temporary and not
permanent in the long run. They will be taken down one peg
at a time as the new Electoral Act has done, but if and only
if we keep the pressure on consistently, unceasingly,
unremittingly, and uncompromisingly.
The Roll Call
The new Electoral Act is a good start, but it is only the beginning not
the end of the process of perfection. It will be interesting
to see how this all plays out at the various party primaries
in short order. For now, the list of presidential aspirants
is rather disturbingly spotting familiar faces that most
Nigerians would rather not see on their ballot papers at the
polling booths or otherwise see with their faces covered
with their palms. And this includes former military Head of
state, Major General Muhammadu Buhari, a permanent fixture
and recurrent decimal in recent times, who has graced each
and every presidential election since 2003 when he
gate-crashed into partisan politics. It also spots former
VP, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku, whose ill-fated presidential
ambition has remained still born; Kano state Governor,
Alhaji Ibrahim Shekarau, a newbie and thorn in the flesh of
Buhari and; former military president, General Ibrahim
Babaginda, whose formal announcement has been greeted with
unprecedented, near universal disapproval and outright
rejection from critical quarters.
While other national and local offices are important in their own rights,
there is no question that the ultimate price is the
presidency which requires a lot of consultations across the
land and adequate time and resources to prepare for the
race. It is the ultimate in the heavyweight category. With
elections set to commence in January therefore, any
presidential aspirant that has yet to signify his or her
interest in the coveted office within the next few weeks
should be ruled out of contention. That is not to say that
there would be no late comers to the show or even
gate-crashers. There are probably some serious aspirants out
there lurking in the shadows who have yet to publicly
disclose their presidential ambitions and working below the
radar to mobilize support for their candidacies. There are
always surprises and the usual dark horses emerging from the
woodworks to steal the thunder and the show from the early
birds at the eleventh hour.
While their identities are unknown at this point in time, such
presidential hopefuls might include Reverend Chris Okotie,
who had revealed to us how he had been chosen by God as the
anointed one in 2007 and had accused the PDP of “stealing”
his mandate. One is still wondering and a little confused
though as to how the PDP pulled off that one from him. I
thought it was beyond mortals to steal God’s mandate. But we
know the PDP is capable of pulling off the unthinkable and
unimaginable. Don’t we? Off course we do.
However, I’ll put it beyond the PDP to play that game with God. The party
is simply incapable of that heist even if it is the Devil
himself. I’m, therefore, inclined to think that it’s not
God’s if it can be stolen by mere mortal, for, no one steals
from God and lives to enjoy the loot. Rather, I want to
believe that only a satanic mandate is capable of being
stolen, and a satanic mandate is un-retrievable from the
thief. That would perhaps help to explain why no party or
candidate was able to recover the mandate from the PDP, try
as hard as they did for two odd years! That is the stubborn,
unyielding characteristic of satanic mandates.
In any case, there were too many people accusing the PDP of stealing
their presidential mandates as if there was ever more than
one presidential mandate at a time. How many mandates are we
talking about here—one, two, three, four, five, six, or 0?
Buhari, Atiku, Ojukwu, Okotie, Kalu, et all, have all
accused the PDP of stealing their presidential mandates as
if we’re dealing with more than one mandate to begin with.
And if they’re all laying claim to it, how would it be
shared amongst the claimants if it was recovered from the
PDP—cut, dice, or grind it? Impossible! The question then is
whose mandate was stolen? Who was the rightful owner of the
alleged stolen mandate? Did it belong to Buhari, Atiku,
Kalu, Ojukwu, Okotie or Yar’Adua? Only one of them could
rightfully and legitimately lay claim to the 2007 mandate.
And thanks to the Federal Court of Appeal and the Supreme
Court, both gave the mandate to the Musa Yar’Adua/Goodluck
Jonathan PDP ticket as the rightful owners. Period!
(Chikena!)
Clerk, call the next case on the Cause List!
However, Chris Okotie, a man of God, might not have been impressed with
that final verdict of mere mortals and may yet try to
retrieve his alleged stolen mandate from the PDP. The party
is still holding on tight to it and is in no mood to let go
off it except from its “cold, dead hands!” (My apologies to
the estate of the late President of the National Rifle
Association (NRA) in the US, Mr. Charlton Heston), who vowed
to fight gun control measures and anti-gun legislations in
the United regardless of the daily mayhem gun violence is
unleashing in inner cities across the land particularly in
black and minority communities.
Heston’s hands may be dead and cold. But unfortunately for Okotie, PDP’s
hands are still live and active not dead as Heston’s and
maybe itching for another daring electoral heist, come 201!
And that’s where the rubber meets the road, so to speak. Is
Okotie ready for the rumble?
It will be a titanic battle to pry it from its hands in the coming duel.
Okotie will need all the prayer warriors in his space-age
congregation and all the help he can get from the newly
elected president of CAN, His Holiness, Rev/Dr//Pastor/
Bishop Ayo Oritsejafor and the entire Pentecostal movement
in Nigeria to declare all out spiritual war against the
“demonic” PDP to let go its stolen mandate. However, as
experience has shown, the PDP does not let go its stolen
mandates without a bruising fight and it has “Satan” himself
at his back poised as it always is to deliver the killer
punch to its opponents. Would Okotie stand eyeball to
eyeball with the “Devil” himself behind it? He will need
help from heaven to dare the Devil otherwise he should
forget about the whole thing. But if he chooses to go ahead
I will be there live at the ringside to watch the epic clash
and cheer him on until the PDP is stretched out limp on the
canvass and taken out of the ring on a stretcher to the
emergency room of the Abuja National Hospital where it is
guaranteed to draw its last breathe due to power failure and
lack of proper medication.
But don’t count Chief Orji Kalu out at the ringside fighting on the side
of the PDP. After all, it is his beloved party that Okotie
is threatening. Although he has not publicly declared his
intention to run, he has not given up his presidential
ambition either even though he now appears to be a deserted
general without troops. What a twist of fate! No shortage of
clowns in Nigerian political theater! Don’t get me wrong,
folks. Politics is an unpredictable game and nothing is cut
and dry. Whatever anyone might think of him, Orji Kalu
stands a good chance against any other presidential aspirant
in the PDP and he could emerge a “compromise candidate”.
Oops! Sorry, that is now ruled out by the new Electoral Act.
Not to worry though, there is always a way where there is a will. PDP is
a master of the game and could always find some loophole to
exploit and field Kalu as its standard bearer. And who
knows, Okotie might find himself doing battle with Orji Kalu
as the PDP flag bearer for the 2011 presidential election.
Did I hear somebody cracking up? Oh, cut it out please! Kalu
has told the world that he made a pact with the new PDP
helmsman, Dr. Nwodo, to come back to the PDP if the man was
made chairman. PDP is a party of secret pacts. And Kalu has
fulfilled his side of the bargain. But what does he get in
return, just a PDP membership card? Anyone can get that on
the internet? What else is in the pact? We don’t know
because it has yet to be revealed. But what else took him to
the PDP of all parties if not to actualize his burning
presidential ambition? With Orji Kalu as the PDP flag
bearer, at least potentially, however, Okotie is guaranteed
to retrieve his stolen mandate from the PDP in real time: no
but, if, or when! But like I said, he will need more than
prayers, but the “Devil” himself on his side to get the PDP
to field Orji Kalu as its presidential candidate for
2011—for 3011 maybe, but certainly not for 2011.
But not so fast, there’s a big elephant in the PDP engine room that is
sucking up all the air from other presidential hopefuls in
the party. And it takes more than prayers and sheer bravado
for a midget to take on an alpha male elephant spoiling for
a fight if he doesn’t want to be reduced to dust. Such a
midget would be well advised to first go for featherweight
bouts and gradually build himself up to take on the
heavyweight class.
The PDP parades a bunch of tested and proven fighters in the heavyweight
class who are known to be rough, brutal, and unforgiving,
and who might, however, not make it to the nomination for
obvious reasons. Paradoxically, that is bad news for anyone
wanting to take on the PDP in the next elections
particularly the presidential contest. It would be good news
for its opponents if the PDP were to field a discredited,
been to, washed out political liability, such as for
example, IBB or Atiku, who has totally squandered his
political goodwill and has reduced himself to hollow drum
that is regularly sounded for his utterly nauseating,
nuisance value in our polity.
It’s amazing that politicians do not seem to know when their game is up
and go someplace else to try their luck. And this is more
evident with former military leaders. It’s amazing how they
delude themselves about their “popularity” and
“acceptability” when the reverse is so stark and thick that
it could be touched with bare hands in the air. Who wants
IBB back in power? The answer is IBB, and James Ibori! Who
wants Buhari back in power? The answer is Buhari, and Prof.
Tam David West! Who wants Abubakar Atiku as the number One
Citizen? The answer is Atiku, and Orji Kalu! No kidding! And
you have to wonder: is this all the “North” that wants power
back, has to offer the nation? There’s got to be something
better than these washed out threesome.
New Look PDP
With Nigerians totally sick and tired of these thoroughly discredited
individuals who are still embarrassing and aggravating them
with their declarations to run for the office of president,
PDP cannot but do a thorough makeover by wearing a new look.
In other words, PDP must reinvent itself by shedding its
old, worn out garment. At this critical juncture, it could
only do so not only by instituting internal reforms, but
more importantly, by maintaining a respectable distance
between itself and its old school hold overs and fielding a
totally unblemished, untainted and visionary candidate who
commands general acceptability across the land and, I might
add, the international community as well.
And the party seems to have put the right foot forward by discarding the
liability called Victor Ogbulafor and replacing him with Dr.
Nwodo who commands respect and general acceptability across
the board. Naturally, the next is the presidency. It cannot
afford to mess with a controversial, corrupt and discredited
figure whose past is tainted with scandals, corruption and
mal administration. These are characters that Nigerians want
to completely get rid of and put behind bars for their
wanton atrocities to the fatherland while they held sway so
as to enable the nation make a clean break with its sordid
past. With these characters still around the nation will be
condemned to relive its sordid past. She deserves a break
and she deserves it now. And that break must start with the
PDP by fielding a credible individual whose past would not
be a serious cause for concern and embarrassment for
Nigerians at home and abroad as well as in international
fora.
It’s not that the international community will choose our leaders for us,
but they are nonetheless interested in who emerges Nigeria’s
leader just as Nigerians were interested in who emerges as
the US president, for example. The international community
too is tired of corruption and mal-administration in
Nigeria. Who wouldn’t, anyway, for a nation this blessed be
going cap in hand begging for alms all because of
kleptomaniacs masquerading as leaders? Who would not be
tired of the stench of corruption oozing out of our shores
to assail the nostrils of decent people around the world?
Who would not be tired of megalomaniacs? That’s not
dictation or foreign interference per se, but benign
expression of preference for an individual candidate.
Officially, that candidate is not yet known as the PDP primaries are
several weeks away. However, certain feelers are already out
and they point in the direction of the man from Bayelsa
State, nestled in the heart of Niger Delta. Hiis name is Dr.
Jonathan Ebele Jonathan, GCFR, President and
Commander-in-Chief of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
Stacked against the bunch of discredited oldies in the PDP
he is the One. He is the one without a blemish. He is the
one with no case file with the EFCC. He is the one with no
political liability. He is the One to wear the ultimate
crown! He has my vote and the votes of overwhelming majority
of Nigerians cast in stone if and when he decides to run for
the exalted office. It’s a no brainer for the PDP. Let’s
face it and quit pretending: the party currently has no
better presidential material than its current leader in the
person of President Goodluck Jonathan. Would it take rocket
science to figure that out?
How do I know that when the primaries are yet to hold? How do I know that
when the elections are yet to hold? I know that because he
is an unspent bullet while his potential challengers are
spent bullets that do not carry any more fires in them.
While Buhari has some credibility left in him since he has
yet to be implicated in any corruption scandal, his despotic
rule and his public image of religious bigotry already
etched in the minds of Nigerians, have become an albratross
on his neck that continues to hurt his presidential
ambition. These imageries stick and they linger for a
lifetime. Buhari is trying hard to tone down these
imageries, but his efforts are too little too late in the
day. It will take another lifetime to undo the damage to his
draconian, despotic and bigoted image.
IBB and Atiku are out and out spent bullets that can only be melted as
scrap metals to produce recycled products. The more these
twosome intrude into our public consciousness, the more
provoked Nigerians become of them. And the more they hear
about them, the angrier they become of them. The mere
mention of their names evokes doom and gloom on the faces
and voices of Nigerians both home and abroad. It’s that bad.
It’s not for nothing that several groups have sprouted up to
stop IBB in particular from contesting the presidential
elections. And Atiku is in no better shape with the masses.
Jonathan has none of these political liabilities weighing
down on him.
I know that because I have seen the wellspring of goodwill pouring out of
Nigerians for him to run. I know that because I have seen
the hundreds of political groups that have sprouted up like
mushrooms all over the country mobilizing support for his
candidacy as it was during the Abiola era. I know that
because of the excitement in the air whenever his candidacy
is mentioned and gloom and doom countenance on the faces of
Nigrians at the mere mention of the name, Atiku or IBB. I
know that because Nigerians are yearning for a change from
business as usual. And they do not want to touch even with a
long pole those like IBB and Atiku who have been tainted
with corruption and mal administration in the past.
Nigerians are dying to see a fresh face of hope and a new
beginning and they have seen a candidate who best
approximates their hopes and aspirations in Jonathan. Even
the blind see this, the dumb know it, and the deaf hear it.
Oh yes, from the House of Jesse God found a David to wear the crown. And
his people have said: Amen! Glory Be to the Lord in the
Highest for giving us a King to rule over us! His
endorsement by the South/South zone in Port Harcourt cuts
across ethnic boundaries. It did not just come from his
native Ijaw ethnic group but from the Urhobos, Itsekiris,
Ikwerres, Ibibios, Isokos, Edos, Ishans, Ikas, Efiks,
Anangs, Etsakos, and you name it. It was not an ethnic thing
unlike what goes on in other places in Nigeria. It was a
collective, trans-ethnic endorsement that foreshadows and
serves as harbinger of things to come at the national level
of which we’ve already seen the first stirrings and salutary
indications of a game change.
From Kaduna to Benue states, Bauchi to Borno, Lagos to Sokoto, Enugu to
Edo, and Owerri to Ondo states and other states in between,
Nigerians who are fed up with the pre-existing order of
inept and corrupt leadership are banding together to say no,
never again to the chieftains of the old order who are once
again showing up their hands to be given a chance to
continue business as usual. They must be taking all of us
for dafts with broken memories otherwise they would not dare
show their faces again. But Nigerians have demonstrated that
they are no dafts and their memories ain’t broken either. A
truly Pan-Nigerian, trans-ethnic movement is rapidly
developing and taking hold on the polity.
Like another worthy son of the nation, MKO Abiola of blessed memory
before him and on whose shoulders he could proudly stand to
run for the presidency, Jonathan is a totally detribalized
Nigerian in whose unsoiled, pristine constitution could be
found the Ishan, Ilaje, Hausa, Yoruba, Ibo, Fulani, Efik,
Tiv, Birom, Edo, Urhobo, Ibibio, Isoko, Ika, you name it.
Yet it would be the height of naivety to imagine that the office is his
just for the asking. It will not be a cake walk. The old
political gladiators are still around to do battle and they
know the political terrain better than the younger breed
including Jonathan, who are still learning the ropes and
groping their way through. Retired army generals turned
politicians are there to contend with, fortified as they
are, with their military strategies which they could deploy
to devastating effects.
The ethnic jingoists are already rearing up their heads, armed with the
tools to dredge up primordial ethnic allegiances to attain
their goals. They will deploy scare tactics to frighten
their constituents and appeal to their base instincts in
order to turn the elections into an inter-tribal, inter
ethnic, or inter-regional contest. They might borrow a page
from the Republicans in the US who tried but failed to turn
the 2008 presidential elections into a racial contest
between whites and blacks.
But if the Republicans, who, restrained by the social atmospherics of
political correctness prevalent in the United States were,
on balance, subtle and unobtrusive in appealing to racial
sentiments, trust the crude Nigerian politicians to go all
out to make ethnicity their sole campaign issues. It’s a
shame that people could appeal to base ethnic sentiments in
this day and age to get votes rather than their programs.
We’re dealing with people who have no diplomatese, don’t
believe in political correctness, and would unabashedly
appeal to base tribal sentiments without batting an eye. Yes
you can count on them to play the ethnic card to the fullest
when they have no issues to run on.
But be certain to learn, however, as the late Chief MKO Abiola proved
beyond every shadow of doubt, that the masses of our people
are already a step ahead of the ethnic gladiators who are
hoping to ride on the back of their ethnic horses on the
highway of ethnicity. I want to repeat this: Nigerians are a
step ahead of the average politician whent it comes to
ethnicity and their votes. Trust that our people will not be
swayed by the tribal posturing of ethnic gladiators to win
elections. While unscrupulous political desperadoes will do
everything in their power to perpetuate ethnic divisions,
the masses have wizened up to the reality that ethnicity
will not put dinner on their tables; will not provide them
with healthcare; will not give them jobs; will not provide
education for their children; nor provide them with good
roads and other social amenities that have been denied them
for decades by the same ethnic champions who are now
shamelessly posing as their saviors and liberators.
Countdown
When I gaze into my crystal ball, therefore, I could see a straight
battle not between or among political parties as one might
have imagine but one between the forces of change
represented and led by Dr. Goodluck Jonathan on the one
hand, and the forces of reaction led by Ibrahim Badamasi
Babangida and Abubakar Atiku on the other. I see a clash of
the old versus the new. I foresee a wave of political
alignments and realignments preceding and right up to the
elections with two major parties emerging at the end of the
day. I foresee a titanic battle ahead with all the corrupt
elements, some of whom are now facing trial by the EFCC,
banding together and flocking to IBB and Atiku to stop
Jonathan.
I see a lot of them using proxies to carry out their acts for fear of
being prosecuted for their corrupt activities in the past. I
see a lot of moles being sponsored and planted by the forces
of reaction on the Jonathan campaign team and strategists
who will work to undermine the success of his campaign. I
see a lot of turncoats and black sheep in Niger Delta
betraying Jonathan by secretly working for IBB and Atiku
while professing their loyalty and allegiance to Jonathan in
the day.
I see a lot of presidential aspirants dropping out midstream leaving just
a handful of contestants in the field. I see the so-called
north split right down the middle in its support for
Jonathan. And I see the much vaunted northern unity
unraveling before our very own eyes to reveal its putrefying
underbelly of seething discontents and mutual distrusts in
its constituent parts. I see the bogey of northern unity
torn to shreds and its constituent parts going their
separate ways as in a broken marriage of convenience.
South/West
I project the South/West falling into the Jonathan column. I see
President Olusegun Obasanjo (OBJ) working hard to and
actually delivering the South/West for Jonathan. But IBB may
pull surprises in the South/West due mainly to the
activities of the rump of Afenifere working against Jonathan
to spite OBJ. IBB is capitalizing on that even though he had
earlier sought the blessings of OBJ for his candidacy. That,
in part, explains why he chose the historical capital of the
South/West, Ibadan, to launch his campaign that never was.
Although the ghost of MKO Abiola will forever haunt IBB in
the South/West, don’t be surprised that those who harbor
deep hatred for OBJ in the zone will work against the
emergence of Jonathan regardless.
Besides that, the very double-faced character of many politicians in the
region which is glibly passed off as “diplomacy” should be
another source of concern for Jonathan, although it could
cut both ways to undermine IBB as well. Though some may
pretend to support IBB he might well turn out to be a victim
of a set up to humiliate him. The embarrasing abortive
launch of his presidential campaign in Ibadan ostensibly due
to unfavorable security reports might very well be part of
an elaborate plot to disgrace him in the heartland of the
Yorubas. He has put the wrong foot forward, which is bad
omen for his campaign from the get go. The IBB campaign
train has gotten off to a squeaky start.
That said, there are lots of Brutuses in that part of the nation who
would dine with you in the day and stab you in the back in
the night with a smile on their faces. Many would not bat an
eye betraying Abiola by going for IBB in the region. While
all the other zones are now declaring their stances
regarding Jonathan’s candidacy, the South/West keeps mum as
a group except for a few individuals like the Oyo and Ogun
state governors who have spoken out publicly in favor of
Jonathan’s candidacy. No offense intended, but trust many in
the region to play Judas Iscariot in the South/West and that
would be in character. Yet as indicated above it could cut
either or both ways. Many could be itching to humiliate him
once and for all for what he did to MKO Abiola using the
opportunity of his candidacy to settle old political scores.
Deserting his campaign launch may well be the first salvo.
South/East
Unlike the South/West, Ndigbo is a straight player when it comes to
politics. When they give you their word, take it as their
bond, no but, if, or when. It’s either yes or no, no faking
it. Ndigbo shoots straight. And unlike the South/West also,
Ndigbo wants to be and remain in the mainstream of Nigerian
politics, not on the periphery of tribal parties. To the
extent therefore that Jonathan is the leader of the
mainstream, ruling political party on which platform he will
run, he can count on the support of Ndigbo in real time not
faked for the cameras. Doublespeak is not the tool kit of
the South/West.
I project the South/East going full-throttle and full-scale for Jonathan
with terrible showing by IBB in the zone to the point of
being disgraced out. This will be evident right from the PDP
primaries should IBB choose to remain in the PDP to contest
the primaries. The fact that both PDP and non-PDP governors
went to receive the PDP chairman, Dr.
Okwesilieze Nwodo, after his appointment as the PDP chair, coupled with
the fact that all the governors from the zone had declared
their lack of interest in the presidency, undoubtedly to
make way for Jonathan, should be seen as pointer to where
their allegiances lie.
I project that nearly all of the sitting governors in the region will
retain their seats under the PDP, including the governor of
Abia state who is already in a love affair with the PDP, in
return for their support for the Jonathan candidacy. And
Governor Peter Obi of Anambra state is on the side of
history and national renewal. He will readily lend his
support for the Jonathan presidential project even against
Ojukwu’s advice. He has put his electoral battles behind him
and so has nothing to fear from the Nkemba. And he has
President Jonathan to thank for it for allowing INEC to do
its job without interference from either the presidency or
the PDP. Obi could easily have lost his seat to Dr. Chris
Ngige or Prof. Charles Solubo but for President Jonathan’s
stance. That’s what has brought some credibility to the
present INEC that the new head will surely build upon.
I permute that Ohaneze, the Igbo socio-cultural organization will not
play any discernible role in this unlike its AREWA and
Afenifere counterparts in the North and West respectively.
IBB will be disgraced out in the end, but unlike Buhari he will not
contest the results in court. As a matter of fact his
candidacy is wavering at the moment but he will still plod
ahead having gone thus far in preparations. It’s too late
for him to withdraw as defeat stares him in the face. He
will be abandoned by his former military and political aides
as a spent bullet with no fire left in him because Nigeria
has moved beyond his types.
I permute that the Nkemba of Nnewi, Dim Odumegwu Ojukwu will try to lend
him a helping hand just for the heck of it, but it will be
too little too late for that to change IBB’s political
fortunes in the South/East. The Ibos will not pitch their
tent with a dead horse even though IBB will try to lure them
with a promise to hand over power to the Ibos after doing
just one term in office. But no one will swallow that bait
from him due to his past antecedent. He is his own worst
enemy as his atrocious past eventually catches up with him.
Besides that, Ndigbo is keenly aware that given its historical records
and attitude towards the region, the North would prefer to
support the South/South to produce the next president in
2015 after its turn might have run out should the presidency
be zoned to the North now till 2015. Therefore, any promise
from the North to Ndigbo of supporting the zone to produce
the president in 2015 is at best an empty promise and at
worst an insult to its intelligence. It’s the bait that
would not make a catch.
On the other hand, Jonathan will be seen by the generality of Ndigbo as
their very own for historical reasons in that he hails from
the part of the country that was part and parcel of the old
eastern region including Port Harcourt where the south/south
leaders met to endorse Jonathan. But for the splitting of
Nigeria into 12 states in 1967, Jonathan would have been the
candidate from the eastern region. He will thus be seen as
straddling both South/East and South/South, the two regions
that have not tasted power except for the South/East that
had a brief spell with the late General Agui Ironsi.
I, therefore, permute Ndigbo trusting Jonathan more than any other
candidate to take care of its developmental interests that
have been lingering since the end of the civil warm, because
IBB had been in power for 9 years and left Ndigbo high and
dry. Unkike OBJ who packed his cabinet with Ibo
intellectuals, from Professors Charles Solubo, Osuji Fabian,
Bartholomew Nnaji, Mauric Iwu, and Dora Akinyuli to Drs. Oby
Ezekwesili, Ngozi Iweala, just to mention but a few who
graced the Obasanjo cabinet, it is hard to point to any
significant appointments of Ndigbo sons and daughters during
the IBB dictatorship. In fact, he forced out Commodore Ebitu
Ukiwe who was the Chief of General Staff in the IBB regime
due to his forthrightness and straight shooting and replaced
him with Admiral Augustus Aihkomu from Edo state. However,
when it came time to do the dirty jobs, he reached out to
assign them to Ndigbo sons in the persons of AGF Clement
Akpamgbo and Arthur Nzeribe whom he used to scuttle the
people’s mandate on June 12, 1993. It’s doubtful if Ndigbo
will forget that recent history in a hurry.
For Ndigbo, Jonathan is as good as having a Nigerian president of Igbo
extraction and will handle the needs of the zone just as he
would the needs of Niger Delta, which of course, extends to
the South/East as welll including Abia and Imo states. The
zone can therefore not go wrong with Jonathan anymore than
the Yorubas might go wrong, for instance, with say, Governor
Bukola Saraki of Kwara state becoming the Head of State. He
would readily be viewed as one of them though from the
so-called North.
The same could be said about Jonathan and Ndigbo and both parties know
it.The recent meeting of the governors of the zone with
Jonathan in Abuja where they laid out their demands for
infrastructural development of the zone and Jonathan’s
commitment to their demands, including, but not limited to
the Enugu International Airport and second Niger Bridge
projects, should therefore be seen in the light of the
political undercurrents at play. Jonathan may have sealed a
deal with the zone as he has with South/South.
South/South, North/Central, and North/East
I forecast Hurricane Jonathan making landfall in the South/South with
wind gusts up to 130mph, making it a monstrous Category 5
hurricane. Naturally, its effects will be strongest in the
South/South from where it will sweep through the South/East
and South/West, and all the way through the Middle Belt with
only slightly reduced strength. Its outer bands will be
strongly felt in the North/East and tapering off in the
North/West.
The South/South should brace up when Hurricane Jonathan hits. And there
is every indication that it is more than ready to absorb the
gale force wind. And that is perfectly understandable. The
South/South is the engine room of the Jonathan candidacy for
obvious reasons. He hails from the zone. The zone will,
therefore, naturally provide the captains of his ship.
But he will also find ready captains and co-captains in the North/Central
who have been itching to break loose their yoke from the
Sokoto Caliphate, right from the time of their political
icon, Joseph Tarka. The driving force in the region is their
political liberation and emancipation from the Hausa/Fulani
tutelage and patrimony. This fervent desire is even stronger
today than it was five decades ago at independence and has
found expression at every given opportunity to assert
itself. And that explains Governor Akume and former AGF
Aondoakaa and Godwin Daboh’s support for Jonathan’s
candidacy. That also explains Governor Jang’s support for
Jonathan in Plateau state. This zone has always gone in an
opposite direction to the Hausa/Fulani block in almost all
elections.
While there are sold outs in the zone who would want to maintain the
status quo and might join forces with either Buhari and IBB
in the name of the North, the historical struggle of the
peoples of the zone to break loose and be set free is bound
to trump the antics of sold outs and traitors in the zone
working for their individual political survival.
The North/East has historically always acted as a counterpoise to the
Sokoto Caliphate right from the time of the Borno Empire.
Historically, it is not part of the Sokoto Caliphate and
resents its dominance in Northern affairs. These cleavages
are deep and remain so even today. The notion of “One North”
is, therefore, a political myth deplored to paper over and
white-wash these deep political cleavages by putting up a
façade of a non-existent Northern unity, which is always
unraveled in democratic elections. Jonathan’s support from
this zone is, therefore, assured if he plays well his
political cards by reaching out and taking the zone into
confidence. The fact that he chose his VP Alhaji Sambo from
Kaduna state is a step in the right direction and sound
political calculation.
North/West
The North/West is the home and the spiritual headquarters of the Sokoto
caliphate. Although it is presently under the control of the
PDP, that control cannot be guaranteed to outlive the next
general elections. And the reason has nothing to do with a
threat of another party takeover, but everything to do with
its staunch support for zoning the presidency to the North
by the ruling party at the center.
If there is going to be any rebellion from any quarters against the
dumping of the zoning arrangement, it will come from no
other than this arch conservative zone. If Buhari plays his
cards well in the zone, he could reap bountiful political
benefits from this zone at the expense of the Jonathan, IBB
and Atiku even though it is a PDP zone currently.
Bafarawa’s DPP will not make a dent in this zone unless as noted earlier
Buhari’s CPC goes into alliance with it and that would spell
trouble for the PDP. However, we can count IBB out of this
zone completely. He will not make any headway in Buhari’s
backyard and might not even try to. However, it remains to
be seen whether this zone will follow through with its
opposition to Jonathan by dumping the PDP and being in the
opposition party. Jonathan has its work cut out in this
zone.
Strategic Advantage in the North
That said, the multiplicity of parties and candidates coming from this
part of the country is sure to produce fragmented votes that
can only benefit the PDP and Jonathan in the final analysis.
That consideration alone is enough to make the zone have a
rethink and retrace its steps back to the PDP fold and
remain in the big tent to fight another day. And when that
day comes as it surely must it will need the support of the
South/South as it has always been in the past. It is time to
reciprocate that solid support and not be greedy. It will
amount to an unpardonable and unforgivable betrayal if the
zone maintains its opposition to Jonathan’s candidacy under
the cover of zoning. That is an unacceptable subterfuge.
Nigeria is not ending today and the presidency will surely
come to it in the near future. Why must it be now when it
has always had it in the past?
One must, therefore, be disappointed in the stance of the likes of
Governor Sule Lamido of Jigawa state whom one had thought to
be a progressive rather than the incorrigible ethnic
champion he has turned out to be. It’s a shame. It is,
however, hoped that saner heads will prevail in the end. It
all depends on how the PDP finally resolves the zoning issue
and the inevitable accompanying tradeoffs.
I project the South/South, South/East, South/West and North/Central, and
the North/East going for Jonathan leaving the North/West for
IBB Muhammadu Buhari and Shekerau to split up amongst
themselves. Though he had pinned his hope on PDP zoning the
presidency to the North, a hope that is fast evaporating
into thin air with even the 19 Northern Governors’ Forum
declaring in their official communique that Jonathan is free
to run, I don’t see Abubakar Atiku running for the
presidency or if he runs at all, making any dent. But he
could throw his support to IBB rather than to Buhari. He
seems to be hobnobbing with IBB lately with both as the
arrowheads of the so-called Northern opposition to the
dumping of the PDP zoning formula. Atiku is a spent force
and a political liability that is running from pillar to
post to actualize the mirage he had been pursuing in his
dreams. He may end up getting expelled again from the PDP.
I predict another gentleman’s agreement in the offing in the PDP designed
to truncate the constitution. I permute Northern leaders of
thought extracting or attempting to extract some concessions
from Jonathan not to go beyond one term and quit in 2015 as
pre-condition for their support. This is again underlined by
the communique of the Northern Governors Forum which has
called for more “consultations” in order to take care of the
“interests” of all concerned. But it will not hold water
because zoning is dead in the pan however much the PDP tries
to revive it for future elections. And anyone resorting to
that illegal and unconstitutional contrivance to deprive
some people or regions from exercising their constitutional
rights to contest elections into any office will have his
fingers burnt in the end.
For the records their communiqué reads in part as follows:
“The supremacy of the
1999 Constitution as encapsulated in Section 1; the
provision of Section 131 of the 1999 Constitution, which
states the qualifications for the President of the Federal
Republic of Nigeria.
“Arising from the above
therefore, the forum acknowledges the right of President
Goodluck Jonathan and indeed any other Nigerian to
legitimately and constitutionally contest for the office of
the president.
“On zoning, the forum
recognizes the fact that the issue of zoning is a PDP affair
as contained in Section 7(2c) of the party constitution.”
That reads like a wholesale lift right from my previous article that is
currently running titled:
Lazy Man’s Road To Power: Ten Reasons To Dump Zoning
But that’s alright. I’m gratified that they have adopted my position.
They don’t need to formally endorse Jonathan like their
South/South counterparts, because they cannot be seen to
collectively endorse Jonathan over their own sons who are
also running. It is impolitic and politically incorrect to
do so and they played smart. All they need do is recognize
Jonathan’s right to contest, which they have done and that
speaks volume. Chikena! Politically, therefore, the
Northern roadblock has been cleared and the entire coast is
clear for Jonathan to run. Zoning argument has been laid to
rest with this declaration from the Northern Governors’
Forum. And this is without prejudice to whatever arrangement
that the PDP might come up with regarding or in place of
zoning. The party is, however, advised not to touch the
presidency if it wants to do zoning. The presidency belongs
to all Nigerians. It could do zoning of party offices
without touching the presidency. Zoning of party offices
should take its cue from the presidency. Once the presidency
and vice presidency have gone to a particular zones, party
offices could be zoned to the other zones. That way the
sanctity of the presidency will be left undefiled and
unencumbered by party arrangements. It’s a national not
party office.
The Parties: (PDP)
I see the PDP finally putting its house in order before the next
elections and doing a lot of trade-offs with other party
governors to support Jonathan in exchange for their
re-election. I see this happening in virtually all the
states currently being run by non-PDP governors, including
even Edo state in the South/South. I see Edo state Governor,
Adams Oshiomhole chickening out of his romance with IBB
having seen the handwriting on the wall and grudgingly
throwing his support behind Jonathan as a trade-off for his
second term election. I see this happening also in Ondo and
Lagos states in particular.
I see the party consolidating on its achievements and proving once and
for all that it can indeed win elections in a free and fair
contest and thus claim legitimate victory. Thanks to
Jonathan whose goodwill and commitment to electoral
integrity, coupled with the appointment of Nwodo as PDP
chairman, have robbed off positively on the image of the
once despised party unlike the scandalous image of the PDP
under the OBJ and Yar’Adua administrations respectively.
This goodwill is a huge political asset for Jonathan and the PDP more
than anything else that should place the party on a sound
public footing in the forthcoming general elections. I,
therefore, see the party making a clean sweep of the
South/South, South/East, and North/Central totally and
completely with no dust left for other parties. I see it
substantially clearing out South/West and North/East, with a
respectable showing in the North/West to complete its
routing of the other political parties at the poll.
I predict moon slide victory for the PDP, effectively turning Nigeria
into a one party state as earlier indicated. That is not my
wish though, but no thanks to anemic opposition.
Buhari’s Trump Card
That said, though the opposition has tried and failed in the past, I’m
still inclined to entertaining the possibility of some of
the mushroom opposition parties agglomerating at the
eleventh hour and possibly coalescing into one political
entity or a somewhat loose federation with Buhari at the
center of its universe to give the PDP a run for its money.
Buhari’s strategic plan, however, is to stop IBB from becoming the PDP
nominee. That explains why he has been vocal in condemning
the PDP zoning and has kept his distance from the IBB/Atiku
sponsored meetings in the name of the North. Buhari is
keenly aware that zoning the presidency to the North would
translate to the PDP’s presidential apple falling into the
waiting hands of IBB and that might spell doom for his
chances in the North.
With Jonathan in the game and IBB and Atiku denied the PDP slot, Buhari
is counting on the North going for him rather than to
Jonathan or any other candidate. And this is so regardless
of whether or not Atiku and IBB contest under different
party platforms. They would have been sufficiently damaged
and undermined by the PDP as rejects to pose any real threat
to him, particularly in the Northern parts of the country.
His consistent attacks on PDP zoning therefore has nothing to do with his
love for Jonathan’s candidacy but borne out of strategic
imperatives. Watch out for Buhari’s moves.
The Parties: (AC)
I see the Action Congress (AC) holding on strongly to Lagos if Governor
Tunde Fashola is not forced out of the party by his
estranged political godfather, Bola Tinubu otherwise it will
fall to PDP, which will be a tall dream, anyway. Fashola’s
stellar performance makes Lagos a safe bet for AC at least
for now.
The party cannot, however, sleep with its two eyes closed when it comes
to Edo state. As indicated earlier, Oshiomhole cannot be
counted on to deliver the state or even to remain in the
party at all if his antecedents are anything to go by. What
he did to the Labor Party in 2007 could be visited on the AC
at the very last minute, when coupled with the Jonathan
factor. Edo state is, therefore, not a safe bet for the AC
at all. My gut feeling is AC will likely lose the state to
the PDP in the final analysis, no thanks to Hurricane
Jonathan.
The Parties: (ANPP)
For all practical purposes the ANPP is dead and awaiting the arrival of
the undertakers with the departure of General Buhari from
its fold. It is one of the greatest tragedies that have
befallen the nation in recent times. This party that was on
equal footing with the PDP at the inception of this
dispensation in 1999 has suddenly gone under, grounded by
political incompetents and unprincipled democratic
pretenders. Had that not being the case, the ANPP would have
readily become the alternative to the PDP at a time the PDP
had shot itself in the foot and Nigerians were yearning to
see its back for good. They found no alternative to the PDP
in the ANPP, but a crisis ridden, unfocused and ineffective
party that was bleeding from the inside.
Now it has been bled to death and its funeral will be announced soon. The
only thing that might prevent that from happening is the
Kano state governor, Ibrahim Shekerau, a Buhari nemesis who
is said to enjoy a measure of popularity in the state. If
that popularity carries through, ANPP might just be reduced
to the status of AC and that is as good as dead for a party
that once controlled seven states and substantial number of
members in the National Assembly. Buhari’s dumping of the
party was a kiss of death.
However, I see Muhammadu Buhari himself suffering a poor outing in the
presidential election with his Congress for Progressive
Change (CPC) party unless he manages to go into major
alliances with other political parties to field him as their
common candidate as indicated earlier. That may well happen
to breathe some life into his epileptic candidacy. Other
than that he may very well drop out of the race because at
the moment his support base has dwindled drastically to the
point of extinction. A mega partnership could be a shot in
the arm for Buhari as noted above. It’s all still up in the
air.
Political Parties: (APGA)
The crisis ridden APGA will not be in contention in the next
general elections because it has had its own in Anambra
state unless the Abia state Governor, Chief Orji remains in
its fold which is highly unlikely. The dream of Ojukwu to
cast APGA as the party of the Ibos, which could be used to
negotiate with the rest of the country will not materialize
anytime soon largely because the Ibos are too republican and
independent minded to be corralled into a regional conclave.
Instead of hunkering down in their domain as ethnic
champions with a political party of their own to be used as
a weapon to indirectly exert pressure at the center, the
Ibos would very much wish to be seated directly at the big
table that is offered by the PDP and grab their shares, just
like the others. The new PDP chair said that much when he
stormed Abia state to drag its governor into the PDP fold.
Watch out for the Ibos to forcefully take their place in the
PDP leaving APGA in the lurch. And who knows, APGA itself
may very well end up in the belly of the beast, the PDP to
complete the routing.
Finally
I predict peaceful and credible elections taking place in 2011 with INEC
finally redeeming its battered image at home and abroad.
However, there will be pockets of violence and
irregularities here and there that will not in any way mar
the overall results and credibility of the elections.
I saw Nigeria finally getting it right and becoming the bastion of
democracy in Africa at long last.
I saw Nigeria being the toast of the world and Nigerians holding their
heads high again wherever they found themselves.
I heard them proudly proclaiming themselves Nigerians for the first time
in a long while.
Yes, I saw a nation reborn with her citizens brimming with hope and
aiming for the skies and a giant suddenly jolted and woken
up from its slumber to take her rightful place in the comity
of nations.
And finally, I looked at my crystal ball, and lo and behold, I saw the
inauguration of Africa’s Obama on May 27, 2011, as President
and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal
Republic of Nigeria in a keenly contested, universally
acknowledged, free, fair and credible elections, in his own
right not as default president.
Yes, I saw a confident Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan resplendent in his
flowing Izon traditional attire specially made for that
occasion raising his right hand and taking the Oath of
Office and the Oath of Allegiance to the Federal Republic of
Nigeria.
And I saw men and women of substance from Niger Delta shedding tears of
joy at the magnificent sights of the inauguration of
Nigeria’s Obama. And I heard a loud cry from the mammoth
throng at the stadium chanting: Long live Nigeria! Long live
the nation!!
I caught it all in my crystal ball to share with the world. And so shall
it be. Amen!
Franklin Otorofani, Esq. contact:
mudiagaone@yahoo.com
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