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Nigeria in the Club of Terrorized Nations: Potentials for Stalled Jonathan Presidency

--Cutting-Edge Analytics--


By: Franklin Otorofani
 Published September 13th, 2011

Back on December 25, 2009, in the aftermath of Abdul Muttalab’s botched attempt to blow up an American airliner, when the United States placed Nigeria on her terror watch list, the government and people of Nigeria were outraged and indignantly protested the inclusion of their country on that infamous list. It did not matter that the US State Department was simply doing what was required of it by law and public policy in the nation’s overall global counter terrorism efforts. The government and public outrage that greeted the US action was, however, understandably based on the fact that Nigeria had no history of terrorism and, on the assumption that Abdul Muttalab’s case was a one-off, individual mental aberration that would not repeat itself and upon which alone such weighty classification could not be properly and validly founded. In other words, Nigerians and their government were simply saying that the nation should not be judged by the act of one man however heinous it might be that would not be expected to repeat itself in future.

However, that argument, though clearly self-serving and rather presumptuous too, remains largely unassailable because even the United States herself has unwittingly bred and continues to breed homegrown terrorists the most famous of which is Timothy McVeigh of the Oklahoma City Alfred P. Murrah Federal Buildings bombing infamy, on April 19, 1995, that claimed 168 lives and destroyed or damaged 364 buildings and some 86 cars, including some who allegedly left the US for terrorist training abroad, specifically in Pakistan, under Al-Qaida pupilage, not to mention the New York’s Times Square attempted bomber and other homegrown terrorists with cells US soil. That would not qualify the US or any other nation for that matter as a candidate for terror watch list. Would it? On that score, therefore, the protests appear to be well founded at least on the face of it, even though the US might have known more about the security situation in Nigeria than the Nigerian government itself but which it was unwilling to disclose publicly that might have informed her action in placing Nigeria on that terror watch list.

The truth of the matter is that there is so much the public does not and will not know about terrorism, counterterrorism and intelligence. The world of intelligence and counter terrorism is like that of secret societies and so we may never know publicly the real reasons behind that move on the part of the US government against Nigeria for which Muttalab might only have provided the catalyst. And Nigeria’s protest was somewhat political in that it helped to divert attention from her own security and intelligence shortcomings in the face of the bloody religious uprisings in the north that had constantly kept the nation on edge. All of a sudden the issue was no longer about a seemingly harmless kid walking through Nigeria’s airport security portals effortlessly with bombs strapped to his groins, but about Nigeria being placed on the US terror watch list unjustly as an unfriendly act given the historical cozy relationship between both nations.

Even so that position did not stop Nigeria from being one of the first nations to hurriedly deploy body scanners at her international gateways and proceeded to activate them even before the US itself did as the very active civil rights groups in the US tackled the Obama government over possible privacy rights violations. It took nearly a year after the Muttalab incident before body scanners were deployed and activated in US airports due in part to those privacy concerns. And that, by the way, testifies to the studious and deliberate approach usually applied by the US government in domestic policy formulation and implementation as opposed to the nervous and panicky, fire brigade reactions of its Nigerian counterpart in similar facts situations. The contrast between the two nations in policy formulation and execution, at least in that singular instance, couldn’t be sharper and clearer.

With that said, the Nigeria government was understandably eager to impress the world and demonstrate its zero tolerance for terrorism even before a clear anti-terrorism policy was initiated and put in place. Thus the Nigerian government, in her desire to please the world and be in the good books of the West rushed to deploy the machines without any considerations whatsoever of possible privacy violations of her citizens as did the US and other western nations that are much more sensitive to privacy rights even in the face of terrorism. Such fitful and nervous reactions, however, betray acute lack of confidence on the part of the Nigerian government to act with utmost deliberation and coherence in her overall national security policy instrumentation and infrastructure provisioning. Resorting to ad-hoc, fire-brigade approach to national security management is symptomatic of the absence of clear policy framework with seamless interlocking components, which should necessarily include the body scanners at international gateways given her long history of being a transit point for narcotics trafficking, robust access control, hi-tech surveillance systems, patrols, and highly trained security operatives that are well heeled in intelligence gathering and analysis, amongst others. However, her jittery efforts managed to get her off the US terror watch list, and then went to sleep. This comes down to the question of the culture of governance. A government operates under one of two cultures of pro-activity or re-activity. At the very first sign of danger a proactive government moves to arrest the danger, real or perceived, whereas a reactive government sees similar signs of danger but waits until the danger itself fully materializes before acting, oftentimes through incoherent, unsustainable and unproven fire brigade methods, with the goal only of putting out the fires rather than preventing the fires in the first place. This reminds one of one of the famous statements by the former US president GW Bush: “I will not wait until danger is upon us” in reference to his decision to go to war in Iraq over Saddam Hussein’s alleged stockpile of biological and chemical weapons. Though no WMDs were found that is beside the point.

Thus rather than seeing the Abdul Muttalab episode as a wakeup call and be proactive in upgrading the nations security infrastructure, then Vice President Jonathan who was clearly distracted by then hospitalized late President Yar’Adua’s handover crisis simply installed the body scanners and moved on to strategize over his political battles in Abuja with the budding terrorism quickly pushed to the back burner. After all, there were no suicide bombers in Nigeria and none were foreseeable on the horizon as of then. We were glibly but naively told then that Nigerians loved life and therefore culturally averse to suicidal self-immolation like the Iraqis and the Talibans in Afghanistan, so why worry. And many Nigerians shared in that flawed theory. Well it turned out that the government and people of Nigeria misread the signs of the times and failed to take into due cognizance the well known propensity of Nigerians to copy anything—you name it—good or bad—from abroad—east or west, and indeed from anywhere on the face of the globe. And till this very day the Nigerian government is still in denial, ascribing the spate of terrorist attacks in the nation to foreign nationals that allegedly infiltrated the country through the nation’s porous borders leading to reports of arrests and deportation of illegal aliens. While that is possible it conveniently overlooks the local connection. It’s like a parent denying the criminal actions of his or her child. Foreigners will not come and commit terrorist acts in Nigeria without local contractors resident in Nigeria who brought them in the first place and provided them sanctuary, targets and logistical support for their operations. Whatever is happening in Nigeria is homegrown with or without foreign assistance. If there are any credible Al-Qaida connections with the terrorist acts in Nigeria such connection were initiated from within not from without. And of course Al-Qaida would jump at such opportunity to expand its global franchise if offered on the platter of gold by local jihadists in Nigeria.

This is not, however, meant to put down the Nigerian government, because unlike the US and other terrorized nations, Nigeria is relatively new to the world of terrorism, therefore her reactions to terrorist acts would necessarily be carried out in anti-terrorism policy vacuum, leaving her to improvise as best she could when hit or implicated in terrorist attacks as was the case with Muttalab. And come to think of it, how is a country that is unable to carry out conventional policing of common criminals that are daily terrorizing the citizens in broad daylight supposed to be masters of counterterrorism overnight? It is utterly unreasonable and unrealistic to expect the Nigerian government to be masters of the game of counterterrorism overnight in the absence of a pre-existing, robust security and counterterrorism infrastructures inherited by the Jonathan administration.

This, by the way, is one reason why this author is rather amused at the naïve and seemingly ignorant commentaries of certain individuals in the media who seem to think that dealing with terrorism is a walk in the park like cleaning out hoodlums from the streets even when more experienced nations and grandmasters of counter terrorism, such as the US, Britain, India and the rest are still struggling and unable to prevent each and every terrorist plot at home and abroad against their national interests. As intelligence experts always remind us, it takes just one successful terrorist attack out of 100 attempts for terrorists to claim victory and rubbish the good work of intelligence and security operatives who prevented the remainder 99 attempts. As indicated above, Nigeria’s case is compounded by lack of robust counter terrorism apparatus. However, such infrastructure will not fall from heaven like manna but carefully and painstakingly architected and built up over a long period of time and continually updated and upgraded. Nigeria never had one to begin with and therefore Jonathan never inherited one, either. The reason Nigeria has been lacking in the department of counterterrorism is because terrorism has never been such a big threat or at all until now. And here, I am referring to suicide bombers targeting governmental institutions. In this regard, local Islamic fundamentalist flare ups prevalent in the northern parts must be totally distinguished from the full blown terrorism involving suicide bombers with international dimensions that the nation now faces. While the old threat is purely religious, and some might add, economic, too, the new threat is entirely political.

The new reality requires new set of tools and infrastructure that must be built from the ground up. For this reason, therefore, I will be deliberately lenient with the performance of the Jonathan administration in putting out this new threat because that is simply impossible in the face of inherited deficiencies in security infrastructures in the nation. When you see the Nigerian government deploying armored tanks in the streets of Abuja and elsewhere as part of counter terrorism measures as if there is war going on, that tells you that the nation has no counter terrorism infrastructure in place but relying on the military and military hardware meant for conventional warfare to deal with the situation instead of intelligence and counter terrorism security systems. As heavily policed and heavily protected as the United States is, for obvious reasons, with her huge and extensive security and counterterrorism infrastructures, there is hardly any military hardware seen in public, yea, not even a single soldier could be found in the streets and public places for security duties. That is the job of specially trained counterterrorism operatives lurking in the shadows of regular cops that constitute its public interface. Presently, as I am putting out this piece, the US government, states and municipalities have marshaled counterterrorism forces in response to alleged terrorist plot on the 10th anniversary of 9/11 terrorist attacks with huge police presence but not a single military officer or military hardware like armored tanks and the like could be seen in the streets or public places. That is the way it should be configured, not show of military power in the streets. It’s unnecessary as such only helps to terrorize already terrorized citizens and does nothing to stop or prevent terrorist acts. The nation must, therefore, move away from the old to the new paradigm in the war against terror by investing heavily in counter terrorism.

When we look back with the benefit of hindsight to the steady progression and proliferation of domestic terrorism in the land, however, we will come to the realization that citizen Mutallab’s botched attempt to down an American airliner, though unsuccessful, successfully introduced Nigeria to the world as a potential terrorist nation, or I should rather say terrorized nation. While the Islamic fundamentalist bloodshed in the North and Niger Delta crisis had gotten the attention of BBC and a few western media outlets that saw them purely as a domestic problem, Muttalab’s attempt was truly terror on global scale and therefore carried in every global media outlet with global reverberations that continued for months on end. But that was only the beginning, though thankfully, there has been no Muttalab from Nigeria terrorizing the world outside the nation’s shores. However, domestic terrorism had taken root and unremitting since then as Muttalab gave way to MEND and Boko Haram. After that episode, the Nigerian government embarrassingly found itself formally showcasing the nation’s real debut in domestic terrorism with her first home grown, high profile terrorist attack during her centennial anniversary in Abuja, on October 1, 2010, with multiple car bombs going off simultaneously under the full glare of foreign dignitaries who scampered for safety. There was no better time and no better occasion for Nigeria to demonstrate to the whole world her capacity for producing terrorists. There was no question therefore that the nation had joined the club of terrorized nations. MEND, which claimed responsibility for the attacks, helped her fulfill that critical requirement for admission into that club. Before that MEND had earlier struck in the oil city of Warri, Delta state, during an event sponsored by Vanguard Newspaper on the ND crisis by blowing up several cars that claimed the lives of a few Nigerians. However, none of these involved suicide bombings, which tended to validate the government’s claim that Nigerians were bereft of suicidal instincts like their counterparts in the Middle East. Since then Nigeria has moved up the ladder and graduated her class of suicide bombers. It has been downhill as other terror groups have, in the notorious copycat mentality of Nigerians, quickly sprung up to help maintain Nigeria’s permanent membership of the club of terrorized nations. So it came to pass that as President Jonathan nervously dialed his counterpart in the White House, President Obama to ask for assistance in the face of the dire security situation his government has suddenly found itself barely three months after his inauguration, most tellingly the bombing of the UN office in Abuja, one is apt to visualize the US president saying to Jonathan:

“Hey, Mr. President, I told you so back in December, 2009, with that Muttalab kid trying to blow up that big bird and wound up blowing up his balls. And that’s why I placed your country on our terror watch list, but you saw the matter differently not being all that familiar with the world of terrorism. Well, I can tell you that we, in the United States, can see and recognize the face of terror even in the dark and confront it right away. Anyway, welcome to the club of terrorized nations. Mr. President. Be advised though that it’s not going to be terribly pretty for you out here. You may take your seat and still your nerves for the bumpy ride!”

Still in denial, I could envision President Jonathan telling his US counterpart:

“No Sir, but thanks anyway. I don’t belong to this club, Mr. President,” to which the US president would reply with a chuckle:

“Neither do I, or any of the other members of this club that I will introduce to you presently. You think we like it out here? We were all conscripted into this club against our wishes, just like you. But you will get used to it, Mr. President. It’s a whole lot easier getting in than getting out, if at all, and that’s why we are still here becoming senior club members mentoring and advising new members, just like you.”

Still unwilling to be inducted into that club one could envision Jonathan protesting his forced membership of that club and saying to the US president:

“I am not and will never be a member of this club but an invited guest or what you might call an observer because we don’t have terrorists in our country, only misguided religious bigots that have caused some anxious moments which we will take care of and move on like we did in Niger Delta with an effective home grown solution, which by the way, I would respectfully recommend to you, Mr. President.

“It didn’t cost much. We did it on the cheap. No massive security infrastructure, hi-tech gadgetry or expensive drones and surveillance systems. Just some tokenistic handouts to the boys and their commanders and some vocational training, for example, in handicrafts, tailoring, shoe and watch repairs, barbing and hair dressing, plus taking the boys around western capitals to see the world and feel good.

“That was all that got the problem permanently fixed and the guns have since fallen silent in ND. You can’t beat our formula, Mr. President. It works and works well. We don’t believe in grandiose systems just to get jobs for the boys and keep capitalists in business in perpetuity at the expense of the people. We do low tech not hi-tech. Try it out in the US and in other parts of the world and you would be glad you did.”

Chuckling but profoundly taken aback by the naivety exhibited in comparing Niger Delta militancy to the new terrorist challenges, one could almost hear Obama saying to Jonathan indignantly:

“Oh please cut it out and let’s get real, Mr. President. You should know better than that. You are the leader of the biggest and most important black nation on earth with a young democracy still struggling to get a foothold in an extremely hostile soil in the part of the world inhospitable to democracy.

“Understand that democracy is a poison and therefore anathema to terrorists, and you saw it during your last general elections. Didn’t you? That’s why they tried to stop democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan and trust me, they will try to stop from taking roots here too because of the importance and influence of your country in Africa and throughout the black world and beyond. That is the perspective we are coming from.

“The happenings in your country are not isolated events but the unfolding of a global terrorist script that will only progressively get worse not better. Don’t forget what I mentioned earlier: The US sees and recognizes the face of terror even in the dark.

‘This is beyond Niger Delta Amnesty Mr. President. This is the real deal—global terrorism has berthed in your country. You’re not just an observer or guest as you might wish to be but a full fledge member of this highly strategic club with the resources and leadership to confront the evil now placed at your disposal. Again, Mr. President, as president of the club, I invite you to take your seat at the back.”

And as Jonathan nervously, ruefully, and despondently took his seat at the back as a new member of the club, he could find old club members such as the United States, Britain, Spain, India, Israel, Kenya, Saudia Arabia, Yemen, Pakistan, Iraq, seated at the front and second rows, looking at him piteously like a lamb destined for the slaughter.

Now, as Jonathan uncomfortably settled on his seat precariously one could imagine the old members taking turns to bring him up to speed and lecturing him on what to expect in his country. Obama would tell him point blank that it is no longer business as usual urging him to brace up to the stark challenges of terrorism, whether home grown or imported, and be prepared to marshal and commit huge national resources that would otherwise be deployed to other sectors including men and materials and high level security trainings for all cadres of government functionaries particularly the security agencies to fight the war on terror.

He would tell him that it is not enough to install body scanners in the nation’s international gateways but on all government and corporate buildings and major infrastructures such as bridges and highways, properly manned by highly trained security operatives 24/7—all connected in real time to National Command Center. Jonathan would get an earful about the urgent need to harden access points to all public buildings with several layers of security and proper fool proof identity tags, not made in Nigeria but contracted to reputable firms abroad to forestall faking and compromised quality. He would tell him to sensitize the public to the new realities through massive public enlightenment campaigns at all levels of government urging them to be extremely vigilant and report suspicious movements to designated authorities. He would tell him to urge his fellow citizens to be prepared to spend some time going through security checks in public buildings before accessing them for services or business transactions. Jonathan would be told that national security legislation would be required to regulate private security and investigation activities which would clearly set out their areas of operations, licensing and training requirements, compliance and reporting obligations to the authorities. The Nigerian president would be told that national legislation would be required to regulate the possession, transportation and use of certain chemicals and explosives, including those capable of composite applications in order to deny terrorists access to them. He will learn that a proper national vehicle registration and identification system need to be put in place, which would track the life cycle of all vehicles as they change hands throughout their lifespan until they become unserviceable and scrapped. Needless to add that he would be told that a proper national identification system for all citizens is a categorical imperative, that must not be toyed with or regarded as a luxury. Then off course, the proper and effective policing of the land borders, particularly those in the northern parts, through which terrorist groups from North Africa could easily gain entry into the nation to cause untold havoc in the nation. Proper border patrols with high tech surveillance system must be emplaced, he would surely be told, to prevent cross border infiltration by terrorist elements.

And then comes the shocker: He would be told that even after he had implemented all of the above measures he would still not be guaranteed security of the nation and Nigerians would be perpetually condemned, like the Americans, Indians, Pakistanis, and other club members, to living their lives in fears and paranoia, spying and reporting on fellow citizens and seeing their neighbors as potential terrorists. They would have their telephones wire-tapped through mandatory partnerships and collaboration with telecommunication networks operating in the country with their privacy thrown out the window. They would spend quite a few minutes in the burning sun waiting to get into public buildings and be frisked from head to toe.

Welcome to the world of terrorized nations! This is the world being lived daily by citizens of terrorized nations. It is a great pity that Nigeria has been forced to join this terrorized alliance—thanks to Boko Haram and their high heeled sponsors that the Nigerian government has been rather too timid in identifying and bringing to justice.

Now that the genie is already out of the bottle, however, President Jonathan must brace up for the worst possible scenarios and devote his full attention and national resources to national security. Without that his presidency will be totally marred and nothing else can be achieved in an atmosphere of extreme insecurity. The downside is that paying 100% attention on counterterrorism could easily distract the federal government and stymie whatever development programs the government has embarked or embarking upon within the limited timeframe of its tenure. That translates to stalled presidency. Nothing would thrill Jonathan’s detractors better than getting bogged down chasing terrorists all over the place with many of their sponsors taking pot shots at him from the sidelines. And that’s why he must move quickly and aggressively to identify and expose them to the world with credible evidence not witch hunting or political vendetta, which is totally counterproductive. But the federal government need not go it alone. National security is not a federal matter alone. It should and must involve the federal, states and local government as well as private corporations operating in Nigeria and indeed individual citizens. Security surveillance systems must therefore be mandated for all levels of government and corporate bodies in the National Security Act that this author hereby proposes for the nation. The proposed Act should mandate minimum security and safety standards to be maintained at all levels of government and private institutions with a national body to oversee their regulation and enforcements, including fire and chemical hazards.

This is beginning to sound like an impossible task for a government that is not used to prescribing and maintaining standards in her national affairs. What a pity. This could indeed be overwhelming for the Jonathan administration still battling to find its footing on the economic and social fronts. But there are silver linings in these dark clouds. There are huge opportunities here for job creation through security infrastructure upgrades not just by the government but by businesses and private individuals as well as indicated earlier. This might begin to sound counterintuitive but the government should look at this as an opportunity to move in tandem with the rest of the terrorized developed world by upgrading her security and public safety infrastructures to international standards. National security is big business at least in the United States. This is beyond torch and whistle security guard business. And when we come to look at it closely, national security should be the very first order of business for any government and nation. And as I indicated above the private sector must be part of the deal. It would be a huge mistake indeed for the government to view these security challenges as distractions and approach them with a negative attitude of being forced to deal with them. A more profitable approach would be to regard these as veritable opportunities for national growth and development within the overall national development strategies. There is something called “security and safety” industry, which the government must move to develop because it provides jobs and huge opportunities for national development.

Nigeria is long overdue for a robust national security and safety infrastructures with an industry and if takes Boko Haram to get her there so be it. How else is she aiming to become the 20th largest economy in the world by Y20/20 with her present rickety security infrastructure, anyway, Boko Haram or no Boko Harama? As Nigeria develops here national highways it must have security built into them. All buildings and bridges must have security systems built into them. All schools, hospitals, banks, corporate buildings, government secretariats, markets, and all significant public institutions and assets, must have robust security systems built into them. I watched on television trees being moved to the new World Trade Center Memorial ground in New York City from different parts of the country on trailer trucks with their root beds fitted with sensors that will gather and transmit information relating to soil conditions and other data types to a central monitoring station. These are hi-tech trees.

By the way the 9/11 Memorial will have been commissioned by the time this write up appears and the public will be milling around those trees not knowing what is embedded in their roots transmitting information to central station somewhere away. It shows how technologically savvy the US is in every field. That is an example of hi-tech provisioning in national infrastructure similar to what could be done for security. The World Trade Center is not owned by the US government but by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which is a government agency. If it could do it the Nigerian government could equally go hi-tech in security, if the will is there as a national priority. Nigeria must not do it on the cheap by cutting corners and greasing itchy palms of corrupt government officials. Some might say the US is hi-tech because it is a developed country and superpower. But being a developed country or a super power is a state of mind. The people and government of Nigeria should develop that state of mind that will get them there, just like the US and quit approaching development the native way.

Costly? Not nearly as costly as the loss of lives and properties to terrorist attacks and the national siege mentality that goes with it! Anyone who thinks security and public safety are too expensive should try insecurity and see how cheap or expensive it is. Plug all the corruption loopholes and the jumbo salaries for NA members and political appointees and the money will be found because there no fooling around with national security. And as indicated earlier, this must be mandated by law. All of these would require trained hands and vendors, and that means more business, more jobs and more technological awareness for Nigerians in general and in particular those in the public safety and security fields thereby making for a more vigilant and aware citizenry in general, for the price of freedom is eternal vigilance.

Now, that is real growth and development.

Franklin Otorofani is an attorney and public affairs analyst.

Contact: mudiagaone@yahoo.com


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