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Transition Blues—Is It Incompetence, Sabotage, Or Hidden Agenda?

--Cutting-Edge Analytics--

By: Franklin Otorofani
 Published April 10th, 2011

With the collapse of authoritarian regimes in the 90s and beyond, anchored mainly on the dictatorial model of the former USSR, democratic transitions have been taking place all over the world at breathtaking pace with relative measures of successes, and Africa is no exception. While many of these nations have never known democracy in their respective histories, however, others were flourishing democracies in the past that were overthrown and supplanted with authoritarian regimes either through military coups or civilian revolutionary upheavals as has been happening in North Africa and in the Middle-east lately. Nigeria belonged to the former group, when the military struck on January 15, 1967.

As a nation therefore Nigeria has had more than a dozen democratic transitions since the Amalgamation of the Northern and Southern Protectorates into one super-nation called “Nigeria” in 1914, dwarfing all her neighbors in geographical size, population and natural resources. Regrettably though Nigeria’s size and resources have not been reflected in her democratic credentials, which is evident in the multiplicity of her constitutions acquired in the process of creating the union itself since every new constitution negotiated and promulgated led to new sets of elections to put the new arrangements into effect. This trend of negotiating and promulgating, re-negotiating and re-promulgating the terms of the union has continued till the present time as reflected in the post independence constitutions of 1960, 1963, 1979 and 1999, as amended. The 1999 constitution itself, the latest, barely escaped replacement in 2006, with the fruitless Constitutional Conference under the Obasanjo administration.

Nigeria’s unstable history of constitutionalism derives directly from and it’s tied to her equally unstable electoral history which bears the tombstones of her electoral umpires disgraced out of office and condemned to live their lives in infamy while the political class, the real culprits, are left off the hooks and shamelessly, remorselessly, and unabashedly carries on with business as usual. By and large they have wildly succeeded in turning the nation’s electoral agency into a graveyard of Nigeria’s electoral umpires.

Different electoral umpires have come and gone under the military and civilian administrations with different levels of support from both the sitting governments and the Nigerian public. But never in the history of Nigeria’s democratic transitions has the national electoral agency been showered with so much resources and national goodwill as the present INEC. And on the flip side, never in the history of Nigeria’s democratic transitions has an electoral agency been so inept and so brazenly incompetent as to almost routinely tinker with an otherwise duly codified transition program and the Nigerian constitution itself, and to brazenly postpone elections on the very day of the election or ever, without as much as consulting with the government itself and other stakeholders!

Regardless of what eventually becomes of the these rounds of elections Jega has acquired the dubious record of being the only electoral chief in Nigeria’s history that could not deliver on the very day of the election and thus forced to postpone the entire general elections in spite of the huge resources at his disposal, and in spite of the fact that the election had earlier been moved from January to April, 2011, at his request with inevitable constitutional amendment that cost the nation billions of naira in the process, not to mention the psychological toll inflicted on the generality of the citizenry and the bad image he has inflicted on the nation in the international arena.

That is a record that could only be erased from the public mind, both within and without, with superlative performance in the elections which by all available indications is clearly beyond the competence and executive capacity of Attahiru Jega and his dysfunctional agency at this moment in time. If anything, that record, bad as it is, is set to be made a whole lot worse notwithstanding the time extensions granted him. It seems that the more resources and time extensions granted to Jega the poorer his level of performance and the lesser the nation gets in return for her investments in the 2011 general elections, i.e., Jega’s performance is inversely proportional to the resources at his disposal.

Since he was appointed Jega has asked for and gotten no less than four time extensions including that of the voter registration. Since his appointment in June 2010 with so much hope and fanfare, the nation that is struggling with broken and dilapidated infrastructure, poor and inadequate healthcare and educational facilities, energy and power services, has, like a drunken sailor in a casino house with his entire salary in his pocket, splashed a whopping N100bn on the electoral agency without batting an eye in less than a year.

But that is not even the total tally for the 2011 general elections since Jega’s predecessor in office, Professor Maurice Iwu, had begun the preparations for the elections way back in early 2010, with updated voter register and announcement of election dates before Jega took office. Thus Jega inherited an electoral agency that was already humming with pre-election preparation activities under Iwu that had reached advanced stages that only needed to be retouched if at all. But in his unbridled arrogance and sanctimonious, holier-than-thou attitude fed by the opposition led by Bola Tinubu’s ACN and the Lagos based civil rights groups that threw him up for appointment, Jega piously threw all caution and prudence to the winds and threw out all of the pre-existing pre-election preparations, including the manual voter register into the dumpster calling them absolute “trash,” and vowed to give the nation a real voter register and free and fair general elections that Nigeria would truly be proud of. What he has delivered so far is what Nigerians would truly be ashamed of, making his immediate predecessor-in-office whom he had shamefully derided looking like a superstar performer with the benefit of hindsight.

Needless to state that all that official madness and extreme savagery bordering on cannibalism was sweet music to the ears of millions of gullible Nigerians, whose minds had been totally poisoned against Iwu with relentless campaign of calumny and unremitting propaganda by the masters of the art, and were therefore bent on taking their pound of flesh on him.

But what would it have mattered anyway if those resources had produced for the nation a credible voter register where every Nigerian of voting age would be given an opportunity to vote and be voted for? What would it have mattered if those resources would ensure free, fair and credible elections that would make every Nigerian raise up his/her head with pride anywhere on the globe? And what, for that matter, would it have mattered if those resources expended on the elections would help secure for the nation a legitimate government that the people could call their own, free from the unnerving and utterly destabilizing odor of illegitimacy?

It wouldn’t have mattered in the least and those resources would accordingly have been deemed “money and time well spent!” And no one would even be thinking about the massive wastage that preceded the elections and the agonizing moments inflicted on the national psyche. But that was not and is not to be and can never be in the country called Nigeria. Or can it? I’m afraid it cannot be with backward looking crop of politicians and ethno-religious irredentists at work compelling the nation to be emptying her vaults into a bottomless hole in each and every election cycle.   

Those were billions of hard earned petro-dollar bearing the innocent blood of Niger Deltans flushed down the toilet just like that. That is money that could have been used to transform the Niger Delta region, tackle severe gully erosion in the South/East, beat back the surging Atlantic ocean that is eating up Lagos beaches and the advancing Sahara desert in the northern fringes, or used to fix the nation’s broken road transportation infrastructure flushed down Jega’s septic pit in the name of free and fair election that never was and will never be. That is not a wish but the reality.

When it’s all said and done the 2011 Nigerian general elections will go down in the Guinness Book of Records as the costliest and most troubled in the history of democracy with the accompanying byline, “with nothing to show for it!” going with it. Not even the building of a brand new federal capital from scratch in an empty desert-land in Abuja had cost the nation that much. All of that or at the least the bulk of it is going to Jega’s faceless, handpicked middlemen that have discovered a goldmine in Jega’s INEC.

And you are still sitting there looking all dejected and forlorn, wondering how come our nation is not making any appreciable progress with all those resources at her disposal when those very resources are being continually flushed down the toilet in an endless orgy of half-baked planning, gross incompetence, executive incapacity and mindless corruption? How could the nation make appreciable progress when she is constantly taking one step forward and three steps backward? How much moss could a rolling stone gather, if it all? Not much. This is not rocket science but commonsense, which they say is not all that common after all. She cannot be expected to make much progress under such utterly disabling circumstances and conditions. And she has not done so either and not likely to do so anytime soon.

And that realization had informed my earlier article published way back in June, 2008, at the height of the opportunistic, callous and mindless agitation for the ouster of Maurice Iwu mounted on late President Musa Yar’Adua titled: Permanency of States, Institutions, and Functionaries (Let Iwu Be!)  in which I argued, albeit unsuccessfully to the regret of the nation, for the retention of the former INEC chairman on the ground that if allowed to remain he could build INEC to a world class institution by gradually building on his successes and rising above his failures in the 2007 elections rather than throwing him out unceremoniously. Though it appeared as though it was a one-man crusade back then I was hardly alone in that advocacy and Iwu proceeded to prove many of us right with the conduct of a few credible elections in Anambra and Edo state and the FCT, Abuja. That is the way successful nations all over the world build their institutions to maturity and not by frequent changes of helmsmen when things go wrong and Nigeria cannot afford to be the odd nation out. As articulated in that article:

“This is one of the stark differences between developed, stable societies of the West and East, and the underdeveloped, unstable societies of the South, like Nigeria and most of Africa. Mature societies are defined by the stability of governmental institutions, policies, and functionaries. Conversely, immature societies are notorious for policy summersaults, institutional instability, and high personnel turnover rates at the highest levels of administration.”

“Nigeria fits snugly into the above description. She is the epitome of impermanence and instability and therefore the concomitant absence of development. There is a direct link between political and therefore institutional instability and underdevelopment. The country Nigeria has acquired notoriety not only for abrupt policy summersaults, but also institutional and personnel changes, usually at the most destabilizing of times!  High level political appointees are ousted while on official duties abroad representing Nigeria and the government that just humiliated them out of office without notice!”

That precisely was what was visited on Maurice Iwu as indeed all his predecessors, and the certain fate that awaits Jega as well, because his is a thankless job in a country like Nigeria, no matter what. It is his burden duty not to make matters worse. And that is because Nigerian politicians must win at all costs, because not winning is not an option, and losers must complain at all costs, because losing is not an option either. The electoral umpire is thus caught between the rock and a hard place from which he cannot extricate himself.

Yet a new and rather naďve Jonathan administration allowed Iwu to be tied at the stake like a dog, bayed about by a whole bunch of some rabid dogs fanning out like blood hounds from the Lagos Axis with their jagged, bloodstained fangs shooting out menacingly as of those of the “Dracula” to devour their victim without fighting back to defend himself. And he was eventually sacrificed to the gods of the opposition and the mercenary groups in Lagos itching to earn their keeps from their foreign paymasters on the back of Maurice Iwu—the so-called civil rights groups.

Did I stick out my neck to advocate for the retention of Maurice Iwu because he is my father, brother, uncle, kinsman or client? No! I can’t tell Iwu from Adam even today and my advocacy for his retention is for the purpose clearly stated in the above quote, i.e., the building of national institutions in a progressive rather than haphazard and ad hoc manner over time. Mistakes will be made and corrected the next time. Pulling down the house is not the best way of correcting mistakes made but only gives room for fresh mistakes by the new leadership. We are seeing that in the new Jega leadership today repeating the very same mistakes his predecessor had made and adding his own baggage on top of them.

Why then, the reader might ask, do I now advocate for Jega’s ouster if I believed in the retention of state functionaries to help build institutions of state? That is a fair question, and I will answer it by stating that Jega has crossed what I would call “the threshold of tolerance”. Advocating for the retention of state functionaries to help build institutions to maturity and efficiency does not and cannot mean condoning gross and irredeemable incompetence.

It’s one thing to make mistakes and correct them in the process of institutional growth and development and quite another when such seeming mistakes assume a life of their own and are repeated over and over again as we have seen with the repeated requests for time extensions, first with the election timetable as a whole which moved the elections from January to April; second for the voter register which extended the date by one week and; third and fourth, these last two back-to-back extensions made abruptly made when the NASS elections were well underway.

Now, like many Nigerians, my gut reaction to these serious failures was to blame them all on gross incompetence, which is obviously part of the deficiencies and shortcomings associated with Jega, without adverting my mind to other possible scenarios. This position was underscored in an earlier article titled “Jega: A Disaster Predicted and A Prediction Fulfilled—Unraveling The Radical Academic and His Dysfunctional Agency” in which I had clearly identified lack of managerial and logistical competences as part of the agency’s problems. Reproduced below for ease of reference was my diagnosis of the agency’s unending problems:

“INEC lacks managerial and technical competences and that of course includes logistics. Those in charge of these technical issues are not professionals but civil servants who don’t have the requisite skill sets to get things done professionally. INEC’s logistics, for instance, should not be handled in house because it simply cannot. Rather, it should be outsourced to reputable firms within and outside the country. Imagine this for a second: INEC has gone digital with its logistics still in the Stone Age!”

Wow! That put the nail right on the head. It’s amazing how events seem to have borne out that analysis in real time. But are managerial and technical incompetence solely to blame for Jega’s election blues? While these deficiencies have undoubtedly played a big role in what has been happening at INEC, it is beginning to look like there could be more to it than meets the eyes. Recent revelations are just beginning to unravel certain hidden forces at play at INEC which the Nigerian public had not reckoned with. To put it bluntly, Jega has seemingly become a willing tool in the hands of certain political forces bent on sabotaging the 2011 general elections or otherwise bending the results thereof in certain directions.

It now seems clear to me and quite a few others that Jega probably has been executing a hidden agenda all along and his failures which have riled the nation now appear to have been deliberately contrived and executed toward attaining a hidden agenda. Now the pieces of the puzzle as to why Jega has consistently been found coming short of his own zealously administered public assurances are finally coming together. What a shame! What a despicable and unpardonable betrayal of the public trust!  The word “treason” does not even begin to describe it.  

It would be recalled that when Jega got the job in June, 2010, he didn’t even allow himself to settle down at his desk to understand the problems of the agency before he went on the lecture circuits pontificating on free, fair and credible elections like the academic that he is, and at the same time doing his best to malign and utterly discredit his predecessor-in-office who had been disgraced out of office to clear the way for him to ascend the electoral throne.

And while he was at it the nation was salivating like a mesmerized victim of a con-man, totally oblivious of the dangers that lay ahead. While he was on the public lecture jamboree virtually no preparations were made for the elections and when he returned from his lecture circuits he suddenly remembered that the agency needed N90bn for the voter registration exercise. He threatened the nation with failed elections should he be denied what he asked for. Pronto, he was handed N87.7bn apparently as down payment because he wasted no time coming back to ask for the balance with additional request for N6.7bn made to the NASS.

That was back on August 9, 2010, five clear months to the first set of elections as per the old time table. As it turned out Jega did not conduct the voter registration exercise until late January 2011, five clear months after he collected the money. And oh, what a mess he made of it! Apart from denying millions of Nigerians their constitutional right to register and vote Jega’s electronic voter register is, by his own admission, riddled with inaccuracies and multiple registrations by the same individuals all across the nation, thereby making his claim of registering 74 million voters highly inaccurate and therefore untenable.  

But smiling his way to the bank he assured the NASS and the nation in general that the elections would hold as scheduled in the Electoral Act commencing in January 2011 to which final deliberation he was duly invited and his inputs as the head of the electoral agency faithfully incorporated therein. But that promise was never meant to be kept but made all the same just for the heck of it. And so, it came to pass that no sooner was the Bill passed into law than Jega stunned the nation again by claiming that the election schedule, which had been agreed upon by all the stakeholders was no longer feasible. Why? Because he could not hold his end of the bargain by getting the voter register ready before the January date!

This was back in October 2010, less than three months to the elections. Again he threatened that the nation could forget about the elections if the schedule which had been incorporated in the 2010 Electoral Act was not changed to accommodate his request for time extension. Threats, threats and threats galore! The nation has been regularly and impudently served with threats of aborting the elections she had invested so much in, and which the whole wide world is looking forward to if Jega’s demands were not met.

Here in roughs is his modus operandi as could be gleaned from his conduct. He would feed the nation consistently and insistently with rosy rhetoric and sweet promises of delivering on time, complete with interviews and press conferences solicited and otherwise, and lull her into a false sense of electoral readiness and then step back and wait patiently to strike exactly where he wanted it to hurt the most. Thereafter, he would come out pleading like an innocent child for public understanding and restating his resolve to deliver credible elections. He is a pain in the butt. 

Like one who is operating on a hidden agenda Jega waited till the very day of the election, being April 2, 2011, to tell the nation that he was not ready for the elections barely 12 hours after he had addressed a world press conference that everything was in place for the Saturday election, when he in fact knew that critical election materials for the Saturday election had not arrived the country or if they had arrived, had not been made available to the states for use in the elections. He has mastered the element of surprise to shock the nation. Is that a man a nation should pin her hopes for credible elections on? It would be a grave and regrettable mistake indeed for the nation to count on Jega to deliver anything but pain and anguish on the nation. If truth be told the credibility of the yet-to-be-held elections has been irredeemably damaged, thanks to Jega. There is not a single political party or candidate that is not readying its/his legal team to contest the results of the elections in court at this moment in time due to the inept handling of the pre-elections arrangements. 

Nothing bespeaks of deliberate sabotage or hidden agenda than the way and manner the nation had been consistently ambushed by Jega every step of the way. Only the head of an agency with a hidden agenda would fail and/or neglect to build in redundancies into his overall strategic plans for effective conduct of general elections of such magnitude in a nation this large. Only a man with such an agenda would fail and/or neglect to have Plan B in his overall plan for the elections. Only a man that is working to a predetermined goal would lull his countrymen and women to travel long distances home with some dying in motor accidents on the way to vote with false promises of his readiness when he knew he had nothing on the ground even remotely resembling ballot papers and other election materials. Indeed only an incurable sadist like Jega would put his countrymen and women through those road hazards and agonizing experiences to leave their homes and line up at polling stations under the scorching tropical sun with no voting materials present on the date of election.

The more I think of it the clearer it seems to me that the man Jega may very well represent a great an implacable evil that has befallen the nation. I don’t know about you but I have completely lost confidence in Jega, because he appears to be standing for something different from that which he professes so profusely. And only the utterly naďve and foolish would repose any shred of confidence in his faked sugar coated utterances and assurances. 

Now consider this: Could you image materials for election re-runs being produced first and brought into the country when voting materials for the primary elections themselves have yet to be received? Tell me which comes first, election re-runs or primary elections? Why in the world would Jega place greater premium on election re-runs than the primary elections themselves? Was there no order of printing and delivery of the materials specified in the contracts? Why were re-runs, which may or may not be necessary suddenly become more important to him than the real elections? Is that not an indication that he might have been working on a hidden agenda that would produce election reruns? They say when the wind blows it exposes the chicken’s behind. In some weird way the election fiasco has exposed Jega’s behind and the machinations going on at INEC, where he alone calls the shots.

I’m not ordinarily a fan of the Nigerian press which I consider long on sensationalism but short on investigative journalism, but hey! this is one heck of investigative journalism for which I give kudos to the press for getting behind the scenes to reveal INEC’s sickly entrails. It’s about time to reveal the real Jega, not the make- believe one.

It has been further exposed that four to five teams, with one headed by Jega himself had fanned out to different parts of the world to scout for and verify election materials printers. And all four came back home with their respective recommendations, which were turned over to another team to harmonize and the team had duly turned in its report for Jega to act upon. But to the surprise of everybody Jega tossed that report only for him to emerge with a bunch of handpicked contractors whom no one but his goons verified to whom he summarily awarded the contracts reportedly to the tune of N4bn. And as they say the rest is history. Even so he did not get the contracts ready until March 2011 for elections that were to begin in April despite repeated promptings. Now if that was not a deliberate act of sabotage then I don’t know what is.  

The thing to note, however, is that these printing contractors have their Nigerian agents who happen to be all northerners! You would think that the elections were meant for the north only not national elections with the revelation of the names of the contractors’ agents in Nigeria. When you add that to the fact that INEC’s national commissioner in charge of logistics is also a northerner you begin to get the total picture of what Jega is up to at INEC.

I’m totally convinced that these things (so-called failures) are not happening fortuitously but have been carefully put in place to achieve certain predetermined outcomes, which are now beginning to manifest. They’re part of a grand design to hijack the elections to serve predetermined ends. Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying northerners have no right to get INEC contracts, but come on folks, why make it all-northerners’ affairs? How does one explain the fact that “Out of the nine operational heads eight of them were said to come from the North” alone as reported by the Vanguard 040711 online edition? (READ FULL STORY) What happened to Federal Character guaranteed in the constitution at INEC? Jega has killed and buried it live? What other Jega shenanigans are yet to be dug out by the press at INEC and revealed to the public? Have we heard and seen all or only been shown the tip of the iceberg? Time will tell but I’m confident there will be more dirty laundry coming out of INEC in the days ahead.

However, the critical question that must now begin to agitate the minds of Nigerians is this: Is Jega out to execute a sectional or a national agenda at INEC? If so what exactly is the nature of that agenda? Nigerians need to know. Is it just about giving jobs for the boys or it also includes working to improve the chances of a particular section of the country or of certain electoral candidate(s) over others?

It is in the light of the above that the reported (Nigerian Tribune) secret meeting between Jega and the leadership of the CPC be viewed with grave concern by all well meaning Nigerians. (Concerns over Jega’s romance with CPC •It is unfounded -INEC). How could a supposedly impartial umpire hold secret meetings with one of the contesting political parties outside the normal meetings with all political parties behind their backs? Now, these allegations may or may not be true and I cannot vouch for their veracity, but the government and people of Nigeria owe a duty to themselves to get to the roots of these rather detailed reports of the meetings, for as they say, there is no smoke without fire.

Yes it has been denied as usual but denial alone means nothing. What has the security agencies been doing while these travesty was going on? Independence of INEC does not extend to acts capable of undermining its impartiality and the credibility of the elections on the part of its leadership. That is blatant illegality.

Could Jega be working to return General Muhammadu Buhari of the CPC to Aso Rock to give the presidency to his beloved North in fulfillment of the wishes of Mallam Adamu Ciroma and his group? Is that the sectional agenda behind Jega’s unusual, strange, and asymmetrical “kokoma dance” at INEC? Is this all part of Ciroma’s NPLF clandestine plans to rig the election at source in favor of a northern candidate in order to actualize their aim of producing northern president in 2011, and they have settled on Buhari?

Could that perhaps help to explain then why Buhari has been so uncharacteristically restrained in the face of these bungling? Would that help shed some light as to why he has refrained from criticizing Jega over his failure in conducting the NASS elections and has instead launched an attack on Jonathan and the PDP for allegedly manipulating Jega in order to divert attention when in fact he had been busy holding secret meetings with him through his CPC party proxies? And all of this has been happening behind the scenes while Jega has been upfront hypocritically dishing out platitudes about conducting free, fair and credible elections, when he is in fact doing dirty deals with Buhari behind the scenes?

The nation needs answers to these troubling revelations which must never be swept under the rug because free and fair election should start at INEC before it gets to the polls. If the handlers of the elections are working so blatantly to an answer then it’s no use talking about free and fair elections at the polls anymore. Please tell me no more about free and fair elections! Elections could be rigged at source through the distribution of voting materials by INEC operatives by shortchanging areas not favored and flooding favored areas with election materials. Elections are a game of numbers and candidates whose strongholds have been denied voting materials are already rigged out of victory at source INEC.

Of all the stunning revelations so far made, however, the most troubling is the obvious ethnocentric composition of the top leadership of INEC. Even a rabid ethnic jingoist could have included just one contractor from another ethnic group or geopolitical region to cover his back but not Jega. The very idea of the top leadership echelon of INEC being almost totally comprised of elements from one part of the country in such an ultra-sensitive agency like INEC is totally and completely unacceptable to the generality of Nigerians. And the government must swiftly move in to rectify the situation to ensure geographical balance in accordance with the Federal Character provisions.

All of these leave one with the inescapable conclusions that like Justice Ayo Salami who confessed using “trusted Justices” at the Court of Appeal to execute his agenda in the election petition cases, Attahiru Jega might also be using “trusted ethnic hands” at the electoral agency to execute a hidden agenda, and that might further explain why he has been accused of running a one-man show at INEC and failing to carry his RECs along in decision making. Imagine a situation where INEC’s state RECs were getting information about the cancelled and rescheduled elections from the grapevine and third parties rather than directly from INEC headquarters when the whole world was already aware of it!

Now, that is one more of the burgeoning evidence of gross incompetence alright, but it speaks also to something else…a hidden agenda. If not carefully monitored and checkmated in time, this Jega who appears to have been lost at sea with a broken compass is capable of springing a devastating surprise on the nation and President Goodluck Jonathan in particular, for there seems to be some method to his madness—sorry gross incompetence. Do not say I didn’t warn the nation. Watch out for Jega’s next move.

Ooops! He has done it yet again! “INEC Shocker: Saturday poll shifted again in some areas.” Rescheduled Saturday NASS elections will not hold in some 15% of the races due to lack of election materials as reported by Vanguard Online! That was the bombshell just breaking out as this article was being sent in for publication. That is one more nail in the coffin of the 2011 general elections by the Supreme Election Undertaker, Professor Attahiru Jega. His pledges were faked; his threats of failed elections were real, and their fulfillment cut in deadly certitude. The jinxed NASS elections are doomed ab-initio. What more evidence of sabotage and hidden agenda does anybody need? Yes there is method to this madness.  

From the stable of –Cutting-Edge Analytics--More than a Blog, It’s a Learning Experience!

Franklin Otorofani is an Attorney and Public Affairs Analyst.


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