 Published
January 1st, 2010
There is much talk going at the moment amongst the political
class of coalitions, alliances and mergers. The general
consensus seems to be that the election machine of the PDP
will simply be unstoppable come 2011 and the only way that
non-PDP politicians can have a say is by forming a coalition
(or coalitions). The story bubbled earlier in the year as
legislators debated whether to include a two-party amendment
into the Electoral Reform Bill, on that occasion the idea
was shot down, albeit after some political manoeuvring, but
nonetheless it raised the profile of the grand coalition
agenda. The idea was first floated by the
‘love-him-or-hate-him’ Godfather of Nigerian politics,
General Babangida, in the ‘Third Regime’ and eventually lead
to what was considered the freest and fairest elections ever
held in Nigeria which was contested between the National
Republican Convention and the Social Democratic Party ( Who
won the election with candidate MKO Abiola)
As the elections have drawn nearer, the Action Congress of
Nigeria (ACN) are reported to be in talks over an alliance
(but probably not a merger) with the All Nigerian People
Party (ANPP) and their splinter party the Congress for
Progressive Change (CPC). In addition to all the politicians
who are criss-crossing the carpet from one party to the
other, Presidential aspirant Pat Utomi of the Social
Democratic Mega Party (SDMP), the day after announcing his
candidacy indicated on his Facebook page that he would be
‘going round Nigeria to build a coalition with ALL
progressives’. The question is now why the sudden clamour
for unity?
There are two scenarios here that though inter-related are
best looked at separately. The first of which was that
raised in May in the legislature, where The National
Assembly sort to pass an amendment limiting the parties
allowed to run to two. The argument being that a two-party
system is a stable political system that has succeeded in
polities all over the world (and indeed in Nigeria albeit
briefly) and will have a number of beneficial consequences
include reduced cost of elections, greater accountability
and higher participation. As such it was advisable to have
it in law. This move although apparently supported by many
was opposed by PDP legislators, but is also opposed by a
number of academics who contend that besides the problems of
rigidity and restricted choice this may imply, the emergence
of two-party politics in the US or Japan or for that matter
anywhere in the world has never been induced by the passing
of law or amendment of constitutions. These changes have
always happened by evolution, with two parties emerging as
dominant over time but with the existence of other parties
not expressly outlawed. This is of course the second
scenario for Nigeria, that parties will splinter and merge,
grow and wither and two parties will emerge; one of which in
all likelihood has already emerged, The PDP.
There is a degree of inevitability about as French
sociologist Maurice Duverger outlined in what became known
as his principle. Duverger’s law asserts that a plurality
election system, like the one that exists in Nigeria, tends
to encourage a two party system, as opposed to a system of
proportional representation which tends to favour a
multiparty system. The argument being that in a country like
Nigeria, where each legislative seat (and the Presidency) is
divided by a simple majority of votes casted by
constituents, the party with the most seats is the majority
(or gains the Presidency) and the second party is in
minority (or is in opposition). In each individual seat
there is no role for the party that comes third, and any
party that consistently comes third across the seats will
have no role at all on a national level. People will stop
voting for them as they will begin to see it as a wasted
vote and/or the party itself will seek to ally itself with
one of the more successful parties. This model has been
applied to analysis of the United States, Japan and the
United Kingdom and is widely accepted, however it is only a
theory and it is the practice of politics that concerns
Nigerians.
This would be a good time for the opposition parties to
unite. The PDP is suffering a dip in support; people are
dissatisfied after 12 years of the party in Government. The
pressure for free and fair elections is overwhelming, this
combined with the cheap publicity via modern technology
means that the elections will be more open than in previous
idea. The concept of a non-partisan coalition chimes with
the electorate and the theme of change that the parties are
planning to run on and cooperation might give them the
financial muscle to challenge the PDP’s hegemony. In
practice, amalgamation looks unlikely. Though the parties
are currently in talks with the view to some sort of
understanding, there are a number of issues in the way so
much so that Alhaji Bafarawa (formerly of the Democratic
People’s Party (DPP), now of the ACN) has come out to dispel
talk of an alliance as just that, talk.
“As a democrat and I believe ACN is a democratic party.
Whoever that is taking our ticket must be our member. I am
assuring you there is no way ACN will adopt a presidential
candidature without recourse to democracy. There is no way
merger will work"
The CPC is a splinter of the ANPP and such is unlikely to
enter any coalition with them, leaving the ACN to choose a
suitor. The major problem hindering any agreement is that
there is no real acknowledgement of who is the ‘second’
party and who is the ‘third’, in other words who will be
senior and who will be junior partner. The CPC is a new
party that although has considerable support particularly in
the North, has no tangible political assets to bring to the
table. The ANPP despite its state Governors and significant
stake in the legislator has taken some political blows as a
result of the defections that have plagued the party this
year. The ACN would seem to be perched in the driving seat
with the popular acclaim for Governor Fashola of Lagos and
its recent court successes in the South-West, however they
don’t appear to be able to put forward a heavy hitting
presidential candidate and such seem to be very much playing
second fiddle to the other parties. The latest gossip is
that the coalition will be between the CPC and the ACN, with
former head of state, General Buhari, being lined up as the
presidential candidate with a running mate from the ACN,
possibly former governer of Lagos State, Mr Tinubu.
If a deal is struck, there will be a number of losers
including ACN aspirant, Mallam Ribadu, who seems to have
been overlooked as well as Pat Utomi’s SDMP and a whole host
of smaller parties who will have little or nothing to bring
to the table. However, in this writer’s opinion a deal is
not likely to be struck, Nigerian politicians are not well
known for their cooperation or their selflessness. For
progress to be made one or more parties will have to give up
their claim to the presidency and accept a diminished role.
The parties will have to choose a platform on which to run
and that is proving a sticking point at the moment as all
sides would want to preserve their political capital by
running on their own party ticket. Then there is the
question of what will happen in the likely situation that
the PDP retains power, the PDP currently has 26 of the 36
gubernatorial seats while the other parties combined have
only 10. What are the realistic prospects of any coalition
continuing beyond the elections and forming a credible
opposition? One can only speculate and on some level that is
the problem in Nigeria, there is no power in opposition and
so every election is winner takes all. Duverger’s theory
doesn’t hold up for Nigeria because there is no second
place, no shadow cabinet, in effect no opposition.
Opposition that should be shadowing government activity,
scrutinizing government agenda and formulating alternative
policies simply doesn’t exist. It should act as check on the
party in power and should fight to get the upper hand on its
opponent by reflecting the will of the people. So this
brings us back to the first scenario and perhaps instead of
the National Assembly trying to legislate on a two party
system, they should legislate on reform to the Assembly that
will allow for or even require credible opposition and maybe
this will bring about the evolution of a two-party system if
it is indeed inevitable.
Enyinnaya Emmanuel Chukwueke
Green Label Project, Changing Nigeria Together
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